By William Hill
15th June 2018
On paper, World Cup 2018 Group F looks fairly straightforward to predict. Germany will win the group, South Korea will finish bottom and then Mexico and Sweden will battle it out for the second qualification spot.
Our best bets don’t disagree with this mindset, but attempt to eke out a bit more value in the World Cup odds. After all, Germany are 3/10 to top Group E and South Korea are 8/11 to finish bottom.
Here are two bets at juicier prices that stick out as attractive propositions.
Germany/Mexico straight forecast @ 15/8
Did you know that Germany last failed to top their group at a World Cup in 1986? That’s seven successive tournaments where they have progressed to the knockout rounds as group winners.
Joachim Loew’s men were particularly destructive during qualifying for this tournament too, being the only European team to win all of their matches. What’s more, they did so with a positive goal difference of +39.
Mexico have been equally adept at extending their stay beyond the group stage in the more recent instalments of the World Cup.
They’ve been eliminated at the last-16 stage at six successive World Cups. Critical to this consistency has been their ability to avoid defeat during the group stage of these tournaments.
In fact, Mexico have only suffered two defeats in their last 17 group outings, winning eight and drawing seven in this period.
Mexico are 5/6 to qualify from World Cup 2018 Group F, while Sweden can be backed at 5/4.
Sweden to beat South Korea and both teams to score @ 19/5
South Korea were hardly the most emphatic qualifiers during the final round of Asia qualifying, finishing only two points superior to a pair of renowned football powerhouses in Syria and Uzbekistan.
They also let in more than both of this pair through the 10 qualifiers, with South Korea averaging a goal-per-game conceded.
Their latest preparations haven’t been much better for Russia either, with one win in six. This sequence includes defeats to both Northern Ireland and Bosnia, who failed to qualify for the World Cup.
This suggests that Sweden should have little trouble beating them too in World Cup 2018 Group F. But rather than take the 21/20 in the World Cup betting that Sweden simply beat South Korea, it could pay to push the boat out a little.
The Swedes have kept clean sheets in just three of their last 24 World Cup matches and this gives hope that South Korea can find the target in what will be their eighth consecutive World Cup appearance.