Assessing The Main Contenders For The Formula One Drivers Championship Title

The F1 betting markets tab Lando Norris as the clear favourite for the 2205 Drivers’ Championship. Norris’ 7/4 price carries an implied probability of 36.4%.

At 10/3 with a 23.1% implied probability, Max Verstappen is the second favourite, despite winning the last four titles. Norris and Verstappen are the only drivers with an implied probability above 20%, but Ferrari’s new pairing of Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc are expected to be in contention.

Leclerc and Hamilton are both priced at 9/2, equalling an 18.2% implied probability. The top four are in a league of their own, with Oscar Piastri – priced at 7/1 – owning the fifth-shortest odds in William Hill’s Formula One online betting markets.

With odds of 14/1 and a 6.7% implied probability, George Russell is the only other driver shorter than 50/1. It’s worth noting that an each-way wager pays out for the top three places, however, so an each-way bet on a longer shot could be appealing before the season gets underway in Melbourne later this month.

Norris’ Chances

McLaren secured a long-awaited Constructors’ Title in 2024, an honour they are favoured for again in 2025. The Woking-based team couldn’t get Norris or Piastri close enough to Verstappen to win both championships, though, and there could be some internal challenges this season after some messy team orders last season.

Determined to avoid the one-driver approach Red Bull have adopted in recent years, McLaren have pushed fairness to the extreme, which could be costly if there’s little to choose between the top drivers. While an intra-team battle would be great for the neutrals, it risks destabilising a supposedly settled team.

On the other hand, McLaren clearly had the fastest car in qualifying and race simulations during testing. Norris deserves to be the title after recording 82 more points than Piastri last season, but the Australian is certainly worth an each-way bet with how good the Papaya team looked in Bahrain.

End of Verstappen’s Reign?

Verstappen won last season’s title without any support from Sergio Perez. Red Bull are hoping Liam Lawson can be more competitive than Perez was in the second half of last season, opening up more strategy options.

There is some scepticism about Lawson’s F1 credentials, though, and Verstappen’s 2024 title was built by winning seven of the first 10 races. That run isn’t going to be replicated in 2025.

There’s a good chance Red Bull are starting the season with the fourth-quickest car. Their testing was disrupted by a water leak, they didn’t manage to do a proper race simulation with Verstappen, and last year’s understeer remained. Verstappen’s preseason price is far too short.

Dream Ferrari Team

Leclerc and Hamilton are the most talented duo on the grid. Formula One’s most prestigious team has a driver pairing of dreams, with Hamilton looking to win a record-setting eighth title.

The Monegasque was imperious in Bahrain, controlling the car superbly on qualifying and race simulations. For the most part, Hamilton looked comfortable, although it might take him some time to get accustomed to the new team dynamic.

Like McLaren, team orders could be a factor. Hamilton – the most successful driver in F1 history – isn’t going to be the second driver. Leclerc is entering his seventh season with Ferrari. When push comes to shove, do the Scuderia let them race?

The betting markets currently have both drivers at the same price for the title, but Leclerc probably deserves to have a slight edge after his performances in testing.

For those fancying Hamilton to return to title contention, here are a few of our favourite Your Odds options:

• Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton over two race wins – 28/1
• Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton over four race wins – 10/3
• Hamilton to finish above Leclerc and Alex Albon to finish above Carlos Sainz in the Drivers Championship – 8/1

Don’t Overlook Mercedes

Kimi Antonelli was quietly very impressive in Bahrain. He looked like a seasoned F1 veteran behind the wheel of the Mercedes, as the Silver Arrows methodically worked through their testing programme despite interruptions for wet weather and red flags.

It’s unlikely the Mercs take a sufficient enough leap for Russell or Antonelli to contend for the Drivers Championship. At 50/1, Antonelli is an intriguing each-way wager for those who are especially high on him.

Russell is the team’s lead driver, of course, so we are expecting the Brit to win at least a couple of races this year. Russell and Hamilton to win over two races is a good value option at 8/5.