Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 18 Predictions
A Raul Jimenez penalty has whittled the field down to just 322 players still chasing the £500k Final One Standing jackpot.
For those battling on a different front, consider these four teams as we head into a packed festive run of fixtures.
Brentford
Earlier in the campaign, this fixture would have been viewed as a favourable spot for Bournemouth, but momentum has shifted sharply over recent weeks.
The Bees’ squad has remained relatively injury-free, and their home form continues to underpin their mid-table resilience. In contrast, Bournemouth arrive in west London with confidence ebbing away and underlying numbers pointing towards regression.
From a results perspective, the Cherries have lost four of their last seven away league fixtures and boast just one win from nine domestically and that downturn has coincided with defensive fragility on the road, where they have conceded an average of nearly three goals per game.
Brentford, meanwhile, have quietly assembled five wins from their last 10 league outings, and they continue to be far more formidable opponents at the Gtech Stadium. Only four sides boast a better home record this season, and Keith Andrews’ side have developed a reputation for starting quickly…
A key figure for the Bees this season is Igor Thiago, whose metrics underline why he remains one of the most dangerous strikers currently operating outside of the Big Six.
The Brazilian is converting almost half of his shots on target (48.3%), elite numbers by anyone’s standards. Against a Bournemouth defence that is conceding high-quality chances away from home, this weekend presents a clear opportunity for Thiago.
However, the one caveat with Brentford remains their game management. No side has dropped more points from winning positions this season, with 13 points surrendered after taking the lead.
Still, Opta’s projections reflect the broader picture: Brentford hold a 47.1% chance of victory, and with availability good and attacking efficiency high, they look a solid favourite against a Bournemouth side searching for answers.
Arsenal
Brighton arrive in north London without a league win in their last five meetings against the Gunners, and recent defensive metrics indicate vulnerabilities that Arsenal are well placed to exploit.
The Seagulls’ issues have been particularly pronounced over the last six gameweeks. During this period, they rank among the league’s poorest defensive units, posting the fourth-highest expected goals conceded, the third-most big chances conceded and the third-highest number of shots faced inside their own box.
That combination is problematic against an Arsenal side that excels at sustained pressure and at creating chances from central areas.
There is also a notable seasonal trend worth highlighting. Fabian Hürzeler’s teams have historically struggled during the festive period, recording no wins across 10 December fixtures under his management.
While small samples should be treated with caution, this dovetails with Brighton’s current trajectory that sees them in the bottom half of the form table.
For Arsenal, the return to full fitness of Martin Ødegaard has been pivotal. Since recovering from his early-season injury, the captain has reasserted himself as the team’s primary playmaker. He ranks third in the Premier League for chances created in 2025-26, averaging 2.5 per 90, and his ability to unlock low blocks has been critical in recent weeks.
Against Everton last time out, Ødegaard created four chances despite limited space. This skillset should again be decisive against a Brighton side that prefers to engage rather than sit deep.
Arsenal are heavily fancied – a 69.5% probability of victory – one of the strongest projections of the weekend.
Everton
The dominant narrative around this fixture centres on the Toffees’ availability issues, with Illiman Ndiaye and Idrissa Gana Gueye departing for the Africa Cup of Nations.
Their absence is significant, but the loss of Ndiaye will be felt most. Since the start of last season, Everton have averaged just 1.0 point per game across ten matches without Ndiaye, compared to 1.4 points per game when he features.
That said, context matters. The Toffees’ recent improvement has been built primarily on defensive structure rather than attacking output, and that foundation remains intact. David Moyes’ side have kept three clean sheets in their last six league matches, and only six teams have conceded fewer goals.
Burnley, conversely, continue to struggle offensively. They rank third-worst in the league for expected goals, sit among the bottom six for big chances created, and have managed just 19 goals all season.
There is also a clear historical trend favouring Everton: they have won their last three meetings with Burnley across all competitions without conceding a single goal.
That psychological edge, combined with the Clarets’ continued inefficiency, points towards a low-scoring contest where Everton’s organisation could again prove decisive.
One angle to note is Burnley’s tendency to score late. No team has netted more goals after the 80th minute this season, with seven strikes arriving in the final stages. While the absence of Ndiaye lowers the Toffees’ attacking ceiling, their defensive reliability keeps them firmly in contention.
Sunderland
This fixture carries a weight of history, marking the first top-flight meeting between Sunderland and Leeds since Boxing Day 2002 — a weekend memorable for a 16-year-old James Milner finding the net. While nostalgia frames the narrative, the data-driven case is compelling in its own right.
Leeds arrive in strong form, unbeaten in their last four matches and showing improvement in chance creation and control. However, the Black Cats’ home record remains one of the standout stories of the season.
They are unbeaten at the Stadium of Light, outscoring opponents by an average of more than 2 goals per game and consistently outperforming underlying metrics.
Sunderland also boast the lowest expected goals conceded from open play in the division, a reflection of their compact defensive structure and disciplined midfield screen.
While some regression due to the loss of several players to the Africa Cup of Nations is expected, there was little evidence of it at Brighton on Saturday.
Despite a recent improvement in performances, Leeds’ issues on the road persist. They have collected just four points from a possible 24 away from Elland Road, conceding close to 2.5 goals per game in the process. With momentum building and confidence high, Sunderland look well placed to round off 2025 on a positive note.
