PGA Championship Day 3 Predictions: Scheffler Favourite To Overcome Adverse Conditions

Maverick McNealy holds a share of the PGA Championship lead with Alex Smalley heading into the third round.

Despite shooting one over on Friday, Scottie Scheffler remains the golf betting favourite at 7/2 ahead of Cameron Young. Scheffler is notably only two shots off the lead.

PGA Championship Odds

• Scottie Scheffler: 7/2
• Cameron Young: 17/2
• Ludvig Åberg: 11/1
• Maverick McNealy: 11/1
• Chris Gotterup: 12/1
• Min Woo Lee: 12/1
• Alex Smalley: 12/1
• Jon Rahm: 14/1
• Hideki Matsuyama: 14/1

Challenging Conditions

Aronimink has drawn comparisons to the sort of conditions golfers have to battle at the US Open. Scheffler bemoaned the pin positions, calling them ‘absurd’. Others have said it’s been made far too difficult to make birdies.

At times, the weather resembled The Open. It’s been a testing couple of days for the world’s best golfers, though it’s notable that many of the world’s top players by shots gained in 2026 are within striking distance of the lead.

The joint leaders being -4 after 36 holes is unusual for the PGA Championship, but good play has been rewarded. Chris Gotterup went five under on Friday, for instance. Ludvig Åberg was four under.

Much like the Masters, numerous big names have missed the cut. It’s three missed cuts in four majors for Bryson DeChambeau. Rob MacIntyre, Tommy Fleetwood, Tyrrell Hatton, J.J. Spaun, and Sepp Straka are also heading home before the weekend.

Decisive Approach Play

Six of the top 10 in shots gained on approach are under par. Only two of the top 13 in shots gained off the tee are under par. As expected, approach play has been pivotal around Aronimink.

With challenging pin positions, often right on the edge of the greens, golfers that can be aggressive and consistently attack flags are the only ones that can rack up birdies. Sharp play is required around the greens, too, to rescue errant approach shots. The top five players in around the green play are all even par or better, including two of the group of players tied for third.

Smalley, Aldrich Potgieter, and Stephan Jäger are running hot with their putters. It’s meant they are all very much in contention going into the weekend, but it’s unlikely to be sustainable for 36 more holes. As a trio, they have been between solid and good on approach and middling around the green. That’s unlikely to be enough to win.

Third Round Best Bets

For those looking to back an outsider on Saturday morning, Daniel Hillier at 10/3 for a top 20 finish is worth backing. The Australian was excellent on approach and around the greens on Friday, and he’s tied for 22nd as it stands.

One shot off the lead and coming off some stellar around the green play, Max Greyserman has value at 6/1 to finish in the top five. Alternatively, you could take 22/1 on Greyserman to lead after round 3.

Harris English is 11/5 to finish in the top 10 after putting in two impressive rounds. There hasn’t been a meaningful weakness in his game so far. If Corey Conners can improve his putting, there’s a world where he’s in the mix for the top 10 (11/1).

*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*