PGA Championship
PGA Championship Day 4 Predictions: Can Smalley Hold On For Super Shock?
Sam Cox previews the fourth and final day of the 2026 PGA Championship for William Hill News, but who will prevail on Championship Sunday at Aronimink?
The 87th-ranked player in the world, Alex Smalley, holds a two-stroke lead heading into the final round. Smalley shot two under on Saturday to hold off surges from Ludvig Åberg, Nick Taylor, Jon Rahm, Aaron Rai, and Matthias Schmid.
PGA Championship Outright Winner Odds:
- Jon Rahm: 9/2
- Alex Smalley: 9/2
- Rory McIlroy: 6/1
- Ludvig Åberg: 6/1
- Xander Schauffele: 11/1
- Scottie Scheffler: 12/1
- Aaron Rai: 16/1
- Nick Taylor: 16/1
- Patrick Reed: 20/1
Big Names Loom
Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy both shot four under in the third round to move to -3 for the tournament. They are three strokes off the lead. Patrick Reed is also tied for seventh at three under.
Justin Rose (-2) is very much within striking distance and it would take a brave punter to rule out Scottie Scheffler, even after he shot one over on Saturday. This field remains incredibly bunched up and this is a particularly wide-open major heading into the final round.
The bookies are equally stumped by what they’ve seen so far. Scheffler’s odds have inevitably lengthened to 12/1, but Schauffele is 11/1 and McIlroy has come back into 6/1 after going four over on Thursday.
PGA History
The PGA Championship has had more than its fair share of underdog winners over the years. Smalley isn’t in an unprecedented position, but that doesn’t change the pressure he’s under.
The American has a 54-hole lead for the first time on the PGA Tour. He’s being pursued by many of the world’s greatest players with masses of major experience.
The majority of Smalley’s success has come from running hot with his putter. At this point, there’s a chance that continues through the final 18 holes on Sunday, but it doesn’t fit the typical profile of winners at Aronimink.
The high-level approach play of Åberg and Rai is more in keeping with the typical Aronimink winners. Co-favourite Rahm and Maverick McNealy are the leaders in strokes gained around the green, which is often indicative of success, too.
Poised For Spectacular Final Day
The setup of Aronimink has had plenty of criticism. It’s been incredibly challenging, perhaps too challenging. Drier fairways and more favourable pins led to lower scoring on Saturday, though, and a congested field creates the prospect of an enthralling final round.
The pins for Sunday are back to what we saw in the first two rounds. Anyone who gets rolling with their putter could surge and win this event, which means the way Smalley has drained putts is significant.
Among the players three under or better, Schauffele, Schmid, and Taylor have also excelled with the putter in hand.
PGA Championship Sunday Best Bets
Rai and Taylor are 16/1, making them decent value each-way bets. Alternatively, Taylor at 11/4 and Rai at 5/2 are worth considering for top-five finishes given how they have handled the challenges Aronimink has thrown at them so far.
William Hill’s double chance markets are intriguing. Rory McIlroy or Xander Schauffele To Win at 7/2 is surely worth backing. McIlroy has been the best player on the course over the last two days. Schauffele also impressed on Saturday. Major experience is going to be important in Round 4.
With +1.63 strokes gained tee to green, don’t forget about Matt Fitzpatrick. He’s too far back to win, but he’s five shots off the top 20. The Englishman has had a brilliant year and can play freely on Sunday – he could be a major riser on the leaderboard if the putts fall.
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
