MMA
UFC 331: Joshua Van v Alexandre Pantoja 2 Predictions
The UFC heads to Los Angeles this weekend for a highly anticipated flyweight title rematch as Joshua Van takes on former champion Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 331.
Joshua Van enters the contest as the slight favourite in the outright betting, with the champion priced at 4/6. Standing across from him is Alexandre Pantoja, who is available at 6/5 as he looks to reclaim the flyweight title.
The fight takes place on Saturday, September 19 at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. The five-round main event is a rematch of their first meeting, which ended after Pantoja suffered an elbow injury just 26 seconds into the opening round. Van subsequently went on to defend the title against Tatsuro Taira.
Prediction
Joshua Van is the 4/6 favourite in the outright betting, with Alexandre Pantoja available at 6/5, but the more interesting angle could be found in the method of victory markets.
Our prediction is for Pantoja to reclaim the flyweight title, with the Brazilian’s experience, grappling and ability to make fights uncomfortable potentially proving decisive over five rounds.
Our Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja to win – 6/5
Alexandre Pantoja by Decision – 11/2 (boosted from 9/2)
Pantoja’s decision appeal
Pantoja’s route to victory could revolve around his ability to turn the fight into a physical, high-pressure contest.
The Brazilian is an experienced title-fight performer and has previously defended the UFC flyweight championship four times. His well-rounded skill set, particularly his grappling and ability to fight at close range, gives him several ways to disrupt Van’s rhythm.
Van’s speed and striking will present a major challenge, but Pantoja’s ability to mix takedowns, pressure and ground work could allow him to accumulate rounds as the fight progresses.
The five-round format could also favour Pantoja. With more time to impose his grappling and pressure, the former champion should have opportunities to slow Van down and make the fight increasingly competitive in the later rounds.
That makes the 11/2 boosted price for Pantoja by decision particularly interesting. Rather than simply backing the Brazilian at 6/5, the decision market offers a significantly bigger price if Pantoja can use his experience and all-round game to edge the scorecards.
Can Joshua Van retain the title?
Joshua Van has plenty of reasons to be confident.
The champion has already demonstrated his ability to perform at the highest level, successfully defending his flyweight crown against Tatsuro Taira in his most recent outing. UFC records his victory over Taira as a fifth-round TKO at UFC 328.
Van’s boxing and speed could cause Pantoja problems, particularly if he can keep the fight at range and prevent the Brazilian from establishing his preferred pressure-heavy style.
The champion also has the advantage of knowing what Pantoja brings after their first meeting, although that contest ended almost immediately because of Pantoja’s injury and therefore provided little indication of how a full fight between the two will develop.
Pantoja, meanwhile, has a significant incentive to make the rematch a completely different contest. He is attempting to become just the third flyweight in UFC history to reclaim the championship after previously losing it, according to the UFC.
Ultimately, Van’s striking could make this a competitive five-round fight, but Pantoja’s grappling, experience and ability to dictate exchanges at close quarters should give him enough opportunities to edge the scorecards.
The prediction is for Alexandre Pantoja to reclaim the flyweight title by decision.
Fight Result Odds:
- Joshua Van by KO – 8/5
• Alexandre Pantoja by KO – 17/2
• Joshua Van by Submission – 18/1
• Alexandre Pantoja by Submission – 3/1
• Joshua Van by Decision – 3/1
• Alexandre Pantoja by Decision – 11/2
With Pantoja priced at 6/5 in the outright market, the 11/2 boosted price for him to win by decision provides an alternative angle for those expecting the former champion’s experience and grappling to make the difference.
Van has the speed and striking to make this a difficult night for Pantoja, but over five rounds the Brazilian should have enough opportunities to use his pressure and grappling to bank rounds.
Prices accurate at the time of writing – odds subject to change.
