MMA
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Nolan Betting Tips & Predictions
UFC Fight Night returns to the Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, October 31, with Renato Moicano taking on rising lightweight contender Tom Nolan in the main event.
The five-round contest pits an experienced former title challenger against a 26-year-old Australian looking to break into the division’s elite after building a five-fight winning streak.
Moicano is the slight favourite at 4/5, with Nolan available at evens, making this an intriguing matchup for bettors. The method-of-victory markets offer further value, particularly given Moicano’s submission skills and Nolan’s recent progress.
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan Match Betting
Renato Moicano 4/5 | Tom Nolan EVS | Draw 33/1
Moicano’s experience against high-level opposition gives him a strong case at 4/5. The Brazilian returned to winning ways in April with a second-round submission of Chris Duncan, showcasing the grappling ability that has long made him a dangerous opponent in the lightweight division. He will be keen to reinforce his standing among the division’s leading contenders with another victory.
Nolan, however, arrives with considerable momentum. The Australian has won five consecutive fights, including a unanimous decision over Farès Ziam, and now has an opportunity to record the biggest win of his career. His youth and recent form make evens an interesting price, although facing a veteran of Moicano’s calibre over five rounds presents a significant step up.
Moicano vs Nolan Method of Victory Betting
The method-of-victory odds offer several routes to consider:
Moicano’s submission record makes 19/10 for a submission victory particularly appealing. His win over Duncan demonstrated that he can still finish dangerous opponents on the ground, and his grappling could be decisive if he manages to take Nolan down and establish control. While Nolan will be eager to keep building his reputation, Moicano’s experience in high-pressure fights could help him identify opportunities to exploit on the mat.
Nolan by KO at 21/10 is another option for those expecting the younger fighter to make his mark. His recent run has included stoppage victories, and his athleticism could pose problems if he can keep the fight standing. However, Moicano’s experience makes this a challenging test, especially over five rounds.
Both fighters are priced at 11/2 to win by decision, offering an alternative if you expect a competitive contest to go the distance. Nolan’s recent decision win over Ziam shows he can win on the scorecards, while Moicano has the experience to manage the pace of a main event. A draw is available at 33/1, although it remains a speculative outcome.
Renato Moicano vs Tom Nolan Best Bet
Moicano’s experience and proven submission game make him an appealing option in a closely priced main event. Nolan’s winning streak means he should not be underestimated, but the Brazilian has already shown he can finish quality opposition on the ground.
Best bet: Renato Moicano by Submission at 19/10
His recent victory over Duncan provides a clear example of the grappling threat he brings into this matchup, and the price offers a more attractive return than backing him at 4/5 to win outright.
Prices accurate at time of writing – odds subject to change.
