MMA
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott Predictions and Betting Tips
Mike Malott gets a major opportunity on home soil when he faces Joaquin Buckley at UFC Edmonton on Saturday 17 October, according to William Hill News.
The Canadian is a narrow 4/5 favourite with William Hill, while Buckley is available at EVS in a welterweight clash that could hinge on whether Malott can take the fight to the ground.
Our preference is for Malott to extend his winning run, with his grappling offering a clear route to victory against an opponent who has struggled to defend takedowns in recent defeats.
Prediction
Malott should approach this as a tactical assignment rather than a striking shootout. Buckley’s power makes every standing exchange dangerous, but the Canadian has a clear opportunity to repeat the wrestling-led approach that has worked against him recently.
The main selection is Mike Malott to win at 4/5. Malott by KO or submission at the boosted 2/1 is the higher-risk alternative, although our predicted outcome is a decision victory built on takedowns and control.
Fight preview
Rogers Place in Edmonton hosts the card, with Malott seeking a breakthrough against higher-ranked opposition and Buckley looking for his first victory since 2024. Malott arrives on a four-fight winning streak, while Buckley needs to respond after consecutive UFC losses to Kamaru Usman and Sean Brady.
Those contrasting form lines make this an intriguing matchup. Buckley has faced the tougher recent opposition, but Malott brings momentum and an opportunity to exploit the defensive weakness that has undermined the American’s latest performances.
Joaquin Buckley – EVS
Buckley remains a dangerous opponent despite his recent setbacks. His victories over Stephen Thompson and Colby Covington demonstrated his ability to trouble established welterweights, and his explosive striking gives Malott a serious problem if the fight stays standing.
His clearest route to victory is to keep the contest at striking range, force Malott backwards and make the Canadian pay whenever he attempts to close the distance. Buckley does not need to dominate every exchange to change the fight with one clean connection.
The concern is his takedown defence. Usman and Brady each took him down four times and accumulated more than 12 minutes of control time, with Brady doing so in a three-round contest. Buckley must improve his ability to defend entries and escape from underneath if he is to avoid another frustrating evening.
At EVS, he is a credible underdog, but backing him requires confidence that he can prevent Malott from establishing prolonged control.
Mike Malott – 4/5
Malott has rebuilt impressively since his stoppage defeat to Neil Magny. Four consecutive victories over Trevin Giles, Charles Radtke, Kevin Holland and Gilbert Burns have put him in position for another significant step forward. His latest win came by TKO against Burns.
The Canadian’s grappling should be central to his approach. Malott is a grappling coach at Team Alpha Male, and Buckley’s recent difficulties provide an obvious tactical opening: close the distance, secure takedowns and make the American work from the bottom.
The temptation will be to exchange punches in front of an enthusiastic home crowd. That would give Buckley more opportunities than necessary. Malott can strike effectively, but a disciplined performance built around wrestling, positional control and measured ground-and-pound looks the better route.
At 4/5, Malott is the preferred match-winner selection. His recent form strengthens the case, but the stylistic matchup is the more important factor.
