MMA
UFC Predictions: 11/4 Submission Tip for Rosas Jr vs Barcelos
Raul Rosas Jr headlines the upcoming UFC Fight Night on Saturday when he takes on experienced Brazilian Raoni Barcelos in a bantamweight clash at the Meta APEX Arena in Las Vegas.
Rosas Jr is 8/15 to claim victory, with Barcelos priced at 6/4, and the draw available at 28/1.
With a busy evening of action, let’s check out the headline contest, how it might unfold and a prediction for how it could end
Rosas Jr the man to beat
The 21-year-old heads into his first UFC main event having won five consecutive fights, most recently beating Rob Font by unanimous decision at UFC 326 in March. He owns a 12-1 professional record and has established himself as one of the division’s most dangerous grapplers.
Rosas Jr’s ability to control opponents on the ground is a major part of his game, and he holds the highest control-time percentage in bantamweight history at 56.9%, according to the UFC.
At 8/15, he is expected to continue his impressive run.
Barcelos brings experience
Barcelos is the considerably more experienced fighter at 39 and arrives in excellent form himself, having won his last five fights.
The Brazilian has victories over the likes of Montel Jackson, Ricky Simon, Cody Garbrandt and Payton Talbott during that run, while his latest success came via split decision against Jackson in April.
His takedown defence could be particularly important against Rosas Jr. The UFC lists Barcelos with an 88% takedown defence, while the organisation’s latest preview puts that figure at 89.5% among active bantamweights.
At 6/4, Barcelos offers plenty of appeal for those expecting his experience and defensive grappling to frustrate the favourite.
How will the fight end?
The method-of-victory market makes for interesting reading.
Rosas Jr is 11/4 to win by submission, making it his shortest-priced method, while victory by decision is 11/5 and a KO is 5/1.
Given his preference for taking fights to the mat, the 11/4 submission price stands out, although his ability to control opponents for long periods also makes the 11/5 decision quote an obvious alternative.
Barcelos is 4/1 to win by decision, 9/2 by KO and 14/1 by submission.
The veteran’s record suggests a decision is a particularly realistic route, with 11 of his 22 UFC victories coming via the judges.
The prediction
Rosas Jr is the clear 8/15 favourite and has momentum on his side, but Barcelos’ five-fight winning streak and strong takedown defence make this an intriguing test.
The younger fighter should look to establish his grappling early, and if he can consistently get the fight to the mat, his submission threat could eventually prove decisive.
He looks well placed to get the job done, but the price for him to win by submission provides a nice boost considering his ability on the mat.
Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr to beat Raoni Barcelos by submission at 11/4.
*Prices accurate at time of writing – odds subject to change*
