Politics
Bookies confident of no EU referendum before 2035
William Hill believe it is highly unlikely the United Kingdom will hold a referendum on rejoining the European Union before 2035.
Despite murmurs of the UK voting again on EU membership under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Hills are 1/6 (equivalent to an 86% chance) that no referendum on rejoining the EU is held before 2035.
If a referendum was to be called, it’s 12/1 that takes place in 2030 or 2034, with other years significantly bigger prices in the market.
A referendum in 2027 is priced at 100/1, while one in 2028 is a 33/1 chance and a vote in 2029 is priced at 28/1.
Year of Next Referendum on EU Membership
- 2027 – 100/1
- 2028 – 33/1
- 2029 – 28/1
- 2030 – 12/1
- 2031 – 20/1
- 2032 – 16/1
- 2033 – 16/1
- 2034 – 12/1
- No UK referendum before 2035 – 1/6
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “Andy Burnham has made clear his intention for closer integration with the EU, but we can’t see a UK referendum on EU membership taking place any time soon. We’re 1/6 – around an 86% chance – that no referendum on EU membership takes place before 2035.
“If there is to be a surprise referendum, then we make 2030, likely to be the year following the next General Election, the favourite to see a public vote on EU membership at 12/1, while a referendum in 2034 is also a 12/1 chance.
“A referendum next year is a major long shot at 100/1, with 2028 (33/1) and 2029 (28/1) also big prices.”
*Prices accurate at the time of writing – odds subject to change*
