Ashes

Ashes Fourth Test Odds & Predictions: Australia Hunting Series Whitewash

19 hours ago

| BY Sam Cox

The Ashes might be gone, but both teams have plenty to play for at the MCG on Boxing Day. England are looking to win their first Test down under since 2011. Australia are gunning to inflict another whitewash.

The Aussies will have to do so without Pat Cummins and Nathan Lyon. The former is resting up after coming back from injury for the Adelaide Test, while Lyon is undergoing hamstring surgery after he saw a second consecutive Ashes cut short through injury.

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England are yet to name their XI, but changes should be made with the series out of reach. Ollie Pope’s England career looked like it came to an end in Adelaide. Jofra Archer should surely be rested after his monstrous workload in this series to date. Gus Atkinson, Matthew Potts, and Jacob Bethell are in contention.

Match Winner Odds

Australia – 4/9
England – 11/5
Draw – 11/1

Closer Series Than It’s Looked

It’s been a disappointing series for England fans and neutrals alike. This really had the makings of a classic, with an ageing, weakened Australia surely vulnerable to a confident England team.

While it hasn’t worked out that way with Australia winning comfortably, it’s been closer than the 3-0 scoreline perhaps suggests. Even Marnus Labuschagne alluded to the competitiveness of the series thus far.

It took a once-in-a-lifetime knock from Travis Head to swing the First Test. Australia were the stronger team in Brisbane, with loose bowling costing England. A historic run chase wasn’t a million miles away for England in Adelaide.

Ultimately, Australia have outplayed the visitors in all facets, but there’s not a chasm between these teams.

More Than Pride

England have more than pride to play for. Zak Crawley has predictably been derided for suggesting a 3-2 loss would be a decent tour. But it’s true.

Recent Ashes tours haven’t even been this close. England have been disappointing, the bowlers haven’t had enough discipline, catches have been dropped, and batters have been done by a mix of some very good Aussie bowling and poor technique, but winning a Test would be significant for England.

England have already missed big opportunities. Josh Hazlewood won’t play in the series. Cummins missed the first two. Lyon was dropped in Brisbane, Steve Smith was unwell and sat out the Third Test, and the top of the order has been unsettled. So, it’s not like it will be easy for England to force a win with no Cummins, Hazlewood, or Lyon in Melbourne.

After all, England had that chance in Brisbane. They have faced an Aussie batting lineup with plenty of weaknesses and not been able to turn that into wins.

MCG Prediction

England’s fourth-inning effort showed a team making a step in the right direction. It was too little, too late for the context of this series, but perhaps showed a team still capable of growing.

Melbourne’s Test pitches have been very bowler-friendly in recent years after going too far the other way. Taking 20 wickets is a daunting task without Archer, but lateral movement off the pitch could aid England’s cause. Matthew Potts could bring some much-needed control.

The vitriol directed towards this team has been over-the-top. England winning in Melbourne will rile their critics further. Don’t be surprised if they find a way to make this series 3-1 – Australia’s bowling attack will be unthreatening if Mitchell Starc is less than 100% as he was on the fifth day in Adelaide.