Cycling
2026 Tour de France: Stage 10 Predictions
The Tour de France returns from its first rest day with Stage 10’s brutal run from Aurillac to Le Lioran with seven categorised climbs on Bastille Day. William Hill News looks ahead to how the Massif Central could shape up.
It has been a dominant fortnight for Tadej Pogačar. The reigning champion took control in the Pyrenees on Stage 6 and hasn’t looked back since, heading into the second week with a healthy 2:42 cushion over Jonas Vingegaard in the general classification, with Isaac Del Toro sitting third overall. Tuesday’s stage isn’t the Tour’s biggest mountain test, but with 3800 metres of climbing packed in, it is the exact kind of jagged, repetitive terrain where Pogačar tends to thrive.
Our Prediction
Tadej Pogačar to win Stage 10 into Le Lioran, with Isaac Del Toro the closest challenger, we expect UAE Team Emirates-XRG to dominate Stage 10 after a well-earned rest day.
The Route
After a gentle opening 65 kilometres, the road tilts upwards and barely lets up. The riders tackle the Côte de Pailherols before a run of climbs including the Col de la Griffoul and Col de Prat de Bouc, then the Puy Mary, Pas de Peyrol, the hardest ascent of the day at nearly 8 kilometres. From there it’s the steep, punchy Col de Pertus before a short descent into the Col de Font de Cère, which crests just 2.7 kilometres from the line. It’s a course with real history: two years ago, Vingegaard famously reeled in and out-sprinted Pogačar on this exact finish.
Stage Prediction
All eyes will again be on Pogačar. UAE Team Emirates-XRG have looked the strongest outfit in the race by some distance, and with Isaac Del Toro able to set a relentless pace on the repeated climbs, Pogačar should have every opportunity to strike late, most likely on the Col de Pertus or the final ramp into Le Lioran.
Vingegaard remains the man most capable of going with him, and given how their 2024 duel here ended, he’ll fancy his chances if it comes down to a reduced sprint. Remco Evenepoel and Juan Ayuso could also be dangerous if they decide to attack from distance, while French hope Paul Seixas will have the Bastille Day crowds firmly behind him.
Stage Winner
- Tadej Pogacar – 4/7
- Isaac Del Toro – 10/1
- Richard Carapz – 11/1
- Jonas Vingegaard – 18/1
Yellow Jersey Prediction
Pogačar doesn’t need to attack to defend his lead, but this is exactly the sort of terrain where he can turn small gaps into meaningful ones without ever looking like he’s trying. Expect UAE to control matters early before Pogačar tests his rivals late on, picking up bonus seconds if the chance arises. Our prediction is that the yellow jersey stays exactly where it is, with Vingegaard doing just enough to keep the gap manageable heading into the Alps.
*Prices accurate at the time of writing – odds subject to change*
