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Final One Standing: Gameweek 19 Predictions
Gameweek 19 offers a rare moment of clarity in Final One Standing. Several heavy favourites face struggling opponents, but as ever, the data demands caution.
Form, underlying numbers and the festive schedule all matter when one wrong call ends your run. Here’s where the smart money should be leaning this week.
Newcastle United
This fixture arrives at a crucial juncture for United, who remain in need of a confidence boost following an extended run of poor away results. Eddie Howe’s side have won just one of their last 12 Premier League matches on the road, losing five of the previous six, and their performances away from St James’ Park have fallen well short of last season’s standards.
Despite those struggles, Newcastle will see this as a significant opportunity to end the year on a high note. Burnley looked ill-equipped for the top-flight, and the Clarets are now winless in nine league matches. Their only victories have come against fellow promoted sides Sunderland and Leeds, plus a hapless Wolves team, who remain rooted to the foot of the table. And against established Premier League opponents, Burnley have consistently fallen short both in results and underlying numbers.
Defensively, the Clarets remain one of the weakest sides in the division. They have conceded 34 goals so far, rank 19th for big chances conceded, and sit bottom for expected goals conceded (xGC). And their struggles are not confined to away matches either – five home blanks already underline how toothless they can be in front of their own supporters.
History further reinforces the Magpies’ advantage. Newcastle have won each of their last seven Premier League meetings (eight across all competitions), winning their previous three at Turf Moor.
From a player perspective, Anthony Gordon is one of the more intriguing assets heading into this fixture. His season has been marked by frustration, reflected in a -2.18 xG underperformance, suggesting a combination of poor finishing and declining confidence. This is in stark contrast to last season, when he averaged 0.65 goal involvements per 90 minutes. However, Burnley’s defensive vulnerabilities offer Gordon a clear opportunity to reset and rediscover form.
Newcastle are given an Opta rating of 54.6% to win this match, with a strong possibility of a clean sheet.
Manchester United
The Red Devils host Wolves, knowing that anything less than three points would represent a significant disappointment. The visitors continue to set unwanted records and risk becoming one of the worst Premier League sides in the competition’s history. In 2025, Wolves have 25 league losses — just one short of Ipswich Town’s record of 26 defeats in a calendar year, set back in 1994.
There are, however, genuine reasons for optimism from a United perspective. Ruben Amorim‘s influence is beginning to show, particularly at Old Trafford. The recent return to a back four proved effective against Newcastle, delivering a rare clean sheet and a more compact defensive display. United have now won five of their last eight Premier League fixtures at home, a notable improvement after a difficult start to the campaign.
Injuries remain a concern, with Bruno Fernandes’ continued absence depriving the team of a key creative outlet. Even so, the quality gap between the sides is considerable, and United should have enough attacking threat to overwhelm a Wolves team that struggles both defensively and in possession.
Former Wolves player Matheus Cunha stands out as a potential beneficiary. While he has failed to replicate performances since a big summer move, his underlying metrics suggest he is not far away from improved returns. Cunha is averaging 2.18 shots in the box per 90 — the 11th-highest figure in the league — but is currently underperforming his xG by -1.46. That inefficiency could well be corrected in this fixture.
Wolves’ defensive issues are compounded by their goalkeeping struggles. José Sá ranks among the league’s poorest shot-stoppers, with a -4.30 goals prevented metric (18th). Against a United side showing signs of greater structure and confidence at home, Wolves face a difficult evening.
Brentford
The Bees have been one of the quieter success stories this season. Following the departure of Thomas Frank, plus the sales of Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa and Kristoffer Ajer, expectations were tempered. Yet Brentford have exceeded projections under Keith Andrews, sitting eighth in the table, having improved across almost every key metric compared to last season.
After 18 matches, Brentford have accumulated more points and more wins than at the same stage in 2024-25. Defensively, the improvements are particularly notable: fewer big chances conceded, a lower xGA, and a significant reduction in shots conceded inside the box. At the same time, their attack has progressed, resulting in a higher xG…
On New Year’s Day, they face a Tottenham side whose form has deteriorated sharply. Heading into gameweek 18, Spurs had won only one of their last eight league matches – funnily enough, against Brentford earlier in the month – but the context is very different away from home.
On the face of it, Spurs’ record looks decent. In fact, with five wins and only two losses on the road, no team has returned more points (17), but the data highlights massive xG overperformance that is not sustainable in the long term. The side has scored almost eight more goals than expected, the biggest disparity in the league. Meanwhile, their away xG differential of -5.5 places them in the lower half of the table.
Further analysis underlines Spurs’ struggles, with the team ranking fourth from bottom for Shots and sixteenth for Big Chances Created.
Brentford are unbeaten in three, collecting ten points from a possible eighteen (including two wins on the spin). With momentum and home advantage, they look well-positioned to extend that run.
Brighton and Hove Albion
The Seagulls will arrive at the London Stadium as favourites, despite their own issues on the road. Brighton averages just 0.88 points away from the Amex this season, but that figure still compares favourably with the Hammers’ home record, which has returned only two wins.
West Ham have taken just six points from nine home matches, losing eleven all told during 2025 — a tally surpassed only by Wolves. The scale of their decline is reflected by Opta, in their relegation model, which currently assigns them a 70.63% chance of dropping into the second-tier.
And history favours the visitors. Since a 6-0 drubbing back in 2012, West Ham have failed to win any of their eight Premier League home fixtures against the Seagulls, although Brighton have won only one of the last seven.
Diego Gómez is the club’s leading goalscorer across all competitions this season (8), with six of those coming on the road. He averages 0.40 expected goal involvements per 90, but his actual return of 0.26 suggests there is still room for improvement. Danny Welbeck is also in line to start for the first time since early December after overcoming a niggling back complaint.
Brighton will look to compound the Hammers’ struggles and heap further pressure on Nuno Espirito Santo, who has failed to spark his team into life since arriving in September.
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