Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 16 Predictions
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Fulham
The Clarets head into this weekend under heavy pressure and with form that has alarm bells ringing across the club. Six consecutive Premier League defeats have left Scott Parker searching for points, but the underlying numbers suggest their slide may continue. Team morale is low, confidence is fragile, and the squad has been stretched with the loss of three players to suspension this week.
Defensively, Burnley will be without long-term absentees Connor Roberts and Jordan Beyer. At the same time, Lucas Pires and Kyle Walker will force Parker into another reshuffle, and the lack of continuity is beginning to show: Burnley have conceded 19 Big Chances and 12.58 xG in their last six matches. Clean sheets—already a rare commodity—have completely dried up.
The Clarets will be pinning hopes on top scorer Zian Fleming (5) or Jaidon Anthony (4), with only four goals in six gameweeks. Even the form of Lyle Foster, who had started the season brightly, has dipped… Burnley are simply not generating enough, and they’re conceding far too many.
Fulham, by contrast, travel north in confident mood. Marco Silva’s side have been largely stable in team selection, and the recent boost in form from Harry Wilson has been timely—three goal involvements in three matches—and Samuel Chukwueze is also hitting his stride. The Cottagers’ medical room remains relatively quiet, and the squad could potentially be boosted by the return of Antonee Robinson, who has endured a stop-start campaign following knee surgery.
Across the previous six fixtures, Fulham have limited their opponents to only 6.54 xG, keeping two shutouts, and the situational trends point overwhelmingly in the visitors’ favour: Fulham are unbeaten in 11 Premier League matches against promoted sides, winning four on the bounce. With Burnley on the slide, the Cottagers are deservedly favourites—Opta gives them a 41.1% win probability- although the real-world context may push that even higher.
Aston Villa
Villa are one of the form teams—winning nine of their last 10 matches —and sit top of the table for points earned since Gameweek 5. Unai Emery’s side has momentum and a clear identity.
Still, we should note that with a Europa League tie on Thursday night, team news will be crucial: Ollie Watkins has been managing a minor knee issue all season and may struggle to perform optimally given the quick turnaround.
The Villains’ strength during this period has been their attack: 22 goals, an output only Manchester City can better, and a conversion rate of 15.9%, which places them in the Top 3 of the league. Donyell Malen has looked sharp when starting, while Morgan Rogers and Emi Buendia continue to contribute heavily from midfield.
West Ham, though, are trending in the opposite direction. Nuno Espírito Santo is still searching for a defensive formula that works – the side has not registered a single clean sheet since he took over in week six, conceding the second-highest xG (17.5), while allowing the most shots in the box (123).
With no league wins in five against Villa, West Ham will need all the luck, and then some, to take anything from this match. The Villains are given a better than 1-in-2 chance (53%), and with The Hammers winless in four and lacking confidence, Villa are well-positioned to extend their superb run.
Brentford
The Bees continue to quietly exceed expectations under Keith Andrews, following a summer of upheaval. Their form has been significantly helped by an excellent availability record, which sees them amongst the best in the top flight, with the second-lowest injury burden and incidence. Key personnel have remained fit, but Kevin Schade is out of contention this weekend due to a ban.
However, the real standout performer this season is Igor Thiago, whose recent form has been extraordinary: five goals in six gameweeks, backed by outstanding underlying numbers—4.34 xG and 13 shots in the box. He has returned seven goals in his last five matches at the Gtech Stadium, numbers that make him one of the division’s most dangerous forwards right now.
Leeds arrive on the back of three excellent performances, but ongoing defensive issues threaten to derail their season… Only Burnley have conceded more (29), with twenty-two of those coming across the last ten games, including 9 in three last week. They are now 12 matches without a clean sheet, and the outlook isn’t great.
Brentford’s home record, combined with big-chance creation—second in the league (16)—plus the form of Brazilian Thiago, makes the Bees clear favourites.
Chelsea
The Blues’ early-season surge has faded quickly, with Chelsea winless in three league matches. The side also lost to Atalanta in the Champions League this week, despite leading at the break.
Injuries are beginning to mount following a summer of Club World Cup exertions, and the loss of Moises Caicedo to suspension cannot be overstated. Reece James continues to be managed after years of injury problems, and Cole Palmer needs time to return to pre-injury levels after three months out.
But despite recent frustrations, this is a fixture Chelsea has dominated, particularly at Stamford Bridge, where the side is unbeaten in 30 Premier League matches. As a manager, David Moyes has not found a way to win 20 league games at this ground, so the omens do not look good.
Everton, however, enter in solid form: four wins in their last five and a clean sheet in each of those victories. Their defensive structure has improved, with James Tarkowski and Michael Keane forming one of the league’s sturdier centre-back pairings. But even with the upturn, this matchup remains daunting.
Chelsea’s underlying attacking numbers have been reasonably strong even during their current slump-Top 5 across most metrics-and according to projections, they should be winning this game 3 times in every five. The Blues need to rediscover fluency in the final third, and if they do, then Moyes’ struggles in this fixture should continue.
