Football

Final One Standing: Gameweek 38 Predictions

3 hours ago

| BY Ben Dinnery

Gameweek 38. One final push before the curtain comes down on another Premier League campaign. But as always with the final day, context is everything – and Ben Dinnery is here to cover the final week of the 2025/26 season for William Hill News.

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Motivation levels vary wildly… some clubs are chasing Europe, others are scrapping for survival, while a sizeable chunk are simply fulfilling fixtures before heading off on holiday or preparing for the World Cup. That makes the final round notoriously volatile from a betting and predictive standpoint.

Historically, the last weekend tends to deliver goals and chaos in equal measure. In 14 of the last 15 Premier League seasons, GW38 has produced a higher goals-per-game average than any other round of fixtures.

Nottingham Forest vs AFC Bournemouth

Few sides arrive at the final weekend with more momentum than the Cherries.

Bournemouth head to the City Ground knowing that a Champions League place remains within touching distance, and that alone should ensure Andoni Iraola’s side are fully focused on getting three points. Compare that to Forest, who have guaranteed their top-flight status.

The Cherries’ consistency over the second half of the campaign has been exceptional. The side is unbeaten since early January, and their attacking numbers remain among the strongest in the division.

Since Gameweek 30, Bournemouth rank inside the Top 5 for Expected Goals (xG), Big Chances, and Shots, scoring 13 times across eight matches.

Forest, meanwhile, appear to be limping towards the finish line after a long, hard season that saw the side reach a Europa League semi-final despite an extensive injury list.

Domestic metrics suffered badly as a consequence. Across the last three matches, Forest posted some of the league’s worst defensive numbers, conceding high-quality chances, while struggling to maintain defensive compactness… and that is a concern against this Bournemouth attack, where goal difference could yet become significant depending on results elsewhere.

Eli Kroupi Junior remains the standout player to watch, with only Erling Haaland posting a better goals-per-90 return in the Premier League.

Opta make Bournemouth favourites (46.6%), although the percentage feels a little low given current form, motivation and overall trajectory.

West Ham United vs Leeds United

The Hammers’ survival hopes remain slim — but crucially, they are still alive. And that alone changes the game’s dynamic.

The atmosphere in the London Stadium should be electric, and Nuno will have his side fired up for three points against a Leeds side whose season is effectively complete. Although, to their credit, Daniel Farke’s players haven’t completely switched off. Leeds are unbeaten in five matches and ended their home campaign on a high with a victory over Brighton.

West Ham, meanwhile, have lost three games on the spin… However, the results arguably paint a harsher picture than the performances deserve. Underlying metrics since Gameweek 26 suggest the Hammers have actually been relatively competitive, particularly defensively. They rank inside the top half for Expected Goals Conceded (xGC), and during this spell, they have often been undone by moments of quality rather than systemic issues.

The loss to Arsenal highlighted that perfectly.

West Ham competed well for long periods and were unfortunate with some key decisions, but ultimately, they lacked the clinical edge to turn performances into points. And that has been a recurring problem.

The Hammers continue to underperform against their expected goals output. If they are to survive, efficiency in front of goal has to improve this weekend, with Jarrod Bowen central to everything.

West Ham are narrow favourites, and with motivation levels likely to play a significant role, home advantage could prove decisive.

Brighton vs Manchester United

The Seagulls still have work to do, with a European qualification place a priority. While catching Bournemouth may require help elsewhere, Brighton also know they cannot afford to slip up, with Chelsea and Brentford still capable of catching them.

That should ensure Fabian Hürzeler’s side approaches this game with full intensity, and their form certainly warrants confidence.

United, on the other hand, arrive unbeaten in five, but context again matters. Their performance levels last time out suggest a team already mentally transitioning towards the summer.

Three points against Nottingham Forest masked some worrying signs. United lacked intensity without the ball, and defensive distances were poor. Meanwhile, post-match, the PGMO admitted an error in allowing Matheus Cunha’s goal after Bryan Mbeumo handled during the buildup. Forest generated enough opportunities to take something from Old Trafford but ultimately fell short.

Brighton, by contrast, still have purpose.

The Seagulls have won five of the last seven league meetings between the sides, and in Pascal Groß, they have a player with nine goal involvements in 15 appearances. Since returning, the German has added composure and creativity, while his numbers in the final third remain impressive.

Brighton are marginal favourites, which feels fair given the current circumstances.

Manchester City vs Aston Villa

Ordinarily, this would be a true dead rubber and very difficult to predict… However, this feels slightly different.

All indications suggest this will be Pep Guardiola’s final match in charge at The Etihad, and emotionally, that changes the occasion completely.

Expect City supporters to treat this as both a celebration and a send-off, with a highly charged emotional atmosphere inside the stadium, and players eager to deliver one last performance worthy of Pep’s extraordinary legacy.

Conversely, Aston Villa arrive as Europa League Champions, plus the hangover of everything that a huge win over Freiburg in Istanbul brings. A demanding season combined with their European exertions could leave Unai Emery’s side running on empty.

Villa have competed brilliantly across multiple fronts this year, but fatigue becomes increasingly difficult to mask once targets have been achieved. And this is a fixture they typically struggle in…

The Cityzens’ home record remains dominant, with Guardiola seemingly having the measure of Unai Emery over the years.

With nothing tangible riding on the result, the crowd should help carry City to three points on the final day.