Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 9 Predictions
Less than five thousand players remain in the £500k Final One Standing jackpot game, but with some difficult fixtures sandwiched between European and domestic cup action, picking a winner this weekend could prove to be even more difficult… Hopefully, this will help!
Leeds United
The Hammers’ campaign has begun disastrously, with their 3–0 opening-weekend defeat to Sunderland setting the tone for a side now sitting second bottom. And this weekend, West Ham travel to another newly promoted team – Leeds United- and, despite Nuno Espirito Santo being in charge, I can foresee no other outcome than a home win.
Supporters are still waiting for the new manager bounce, with Nuno unable to arrest the slide after failing to win in his first three games. The 2–0 loss to Brentford on Monday night highlighted just how much work lies ahead…
The side made five changes and started brightly, but a goal from Thiago just before the break prompted a reshuffle, which failed, and West Ham were only able to muster 0.34 xG (conceding 2.3 xG), figures that suggest Nuno is yet to implement his new strategies successfully.
Leeds are performing well, although results continue to disappoint, and any success this season will have to be built upon a bedrock of wins at Elland Road.
At home, the Lilywhites have averaged 1.6 xG, good offensive numbers, with only 0.6 xG against per 90, the third-best in the Premier League on home soil. Still, they only have one win to show for their troubles, and these are the fixtures they must target with Manchester City, Liverpool (twice) and Chelsea all coming up before the end of the year.
Leeds are averaging 13 shots per 90, but less than four on target, with two big chances created… Encouraging stats, but Daniel Farke’s side are more than two goals down on their expected metrics, a notable underperformance against xG.
However, that could be boosted by the Hammers’ goalkeeper, as both Alphonse Areola and Mads Hermansen have recorded negative xG prevented, meaning they have conceded more than the data indicates.
A proverbial early-season ‘six-pointer’ with Leeds, firm favourites (56%) to secure the win.
Everton
Tottenham have often made life difficult for Everton, particularly at their old ground, Goodison Park, where the Toffees have won just once in the league since 2012, though that was in 2024/25, when Michael Keane was on hand to bag a late winner (3-2).
However, I’m expecting a different outcome at The Hill Dickinson Stadium this weekend. David Moyes’ side have lost just three home games in 2025 (Premier League), one in 13, while Spurs have gone winless in the Toffees’ backyard since 2018.
Despite an unbeaten start on the road this term, the underlying data suggests Spurs’ overperformance cannot be sustained long-term. The side has collected 10 away points — double their expected total — while their nine goals, 2.25 per 90, come from just 1.03 xG. That level of finishing efficiency is almost impossible to maintain.
Thomas Frank has improved Tottenham structurally, but their recent displays show clear warning signs beneath the results, while a hard-fought draw at Monaco midweek may take its toll on the players.
Against a physically disciplined, well-drilled Everton side, who will welcome Jack Grealish back into their ranks, Spurs’ luck could finally run out.
The Toffees were arguably the better team against Manchester City last weekend, before an Erling Haaland double continued his eight-game scoring streak (now nine across all competitions). This could be scrappy, but I’m backing Everton to come out on top.
AFC Bournemouth
Forest still have a European fixture to fulfil against Porto at the time of writing, and the schedule is working against new manager Sean Dyche, who was newly installed this week.
Undoubtedly, he has proven Premier League pedigree, with philosophies more aligned with the current squad, but this will take time on the training pitch, which he hasn’t really had.
So, a trip to the south coast, which is a challenging assignment on most occasions, becomes even trickier, given the Cherries’ current form – joint fourth for goals scored (14), fifth for Shots on Target per 90 (4.5), and fifth for Corners (45).
Bournemouth have reached the dizzy heights of fourth and are unbeaten in their last ten league meetings against Forest, with Antoine Semenyo flourishing. He has 10 goal-involvements already, around 71% of the Cherries’ total, and he sits in the Top 5 for xG, with a 1-in-2 chance of adding to his tally on Sunday.
Newcastle United
Nick Woltemade has quickly become a hero on Tyneside, filling the goalscoring boots of Alexander Isak despite the Germany international still working his way up to full speed.
The 6-foot-6-inch striker has only completed 90 minutes once since his arrival, but averages 0.91 goal involvements per 90, placing him third overall, just behind Antoine Semenyo and Erling Haaland.
The win over Benfica in the Champions League should provide the platform to kick on in the league following a disappointing start that has yielded only two victories, both against struggling opposition.
Creativity remains the central issue, with the Magpies sitting in the Bottom Half for xG (9.58), Big Chances (15), and Goals (7), but in Anthony Gordon, man-of-the-match midweek, and Harvey Barnes, two goals from the bench, the signs look good against a team that has lost three on the bounce.
This downturn in form has coincided with a mounting injury list and a stretched squad that lacks depth following a difficult summer of transfer business. Joachim Andersen is the most recent addition to the treatment room, and combined with the continued absence of Antonee Robinson, the Fulham backline has only been able to keep one clean sheet.
Higher up the pitch, Raul Jimenez has been struggling with a hip complaint, and Rodrigo Muniz is sidelined, leaving the Cottagers with Bottom Four stats for Shots on Target (23) and Big Chances (11), with only 174 touches in the opponents’ box, again among the lowest in the league.
Fulham have earned only one point on the road, and this should be the perfect fixture for Newcastle to get their season back on track.
