Final One Standing 2026/27: Gameweek 4 Predictions

European football adds another layer of risk to this week’s Final One Standing selections, but it should not automatically deter us from backing the strongest sides.

Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal all face opponents whose results have either exceeded their underlying performances or exposed serious weaknesses. Meanwhile, Brighton provide the more adventurous alternative: statistically impressive but considerably less secure.

Chelsea vs Hull City

The Blues are the standout selection of the weekend – though they are admittedly a short price in football betting odds.

Do not be deceived by the Tigers’ lofty league position. They sit third, remain unbeaten and are yet to concede, but their underlying numbers paint a very different picture.

Hull have conceded 5.05 expected goals from 45 shots, including 32 attempts from inside the penalty area. Turning that level of pressure into three clean sheets represents a significant early overperformance. Goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis has already prevented two goals based on expected metrics—and those margins are unlikely to remain sustainable.

The side has spent much of their opening matches on the back foot, with their goals largely coming through isolated counterattacking moments.

Statistically, the numbers show the team has spent more than a quarter of its time (26.5%) sitting in a low block during their opponents’ build-up, the second-highest proportion in the league, while their 18.8 passes per defensive action ranks them 19th for pressing intensity. This approach invites pressure—and Chelsea are well equipped to exploit it.

Xabi Alonso has transformed Chelsea into an exciting attacking unit. They have generated 5.56 expected goals from 48 shots, including 33 efforts from inside the box, while creating nine big chances and scoring eight goals.

There is also a pronounced historical imbalance: Chelsea are on a nine-game winning streak in this fixture and have kept clean sheets in five of their previous six home matches against Hull.

Cole Palmer could be central once again. He has two goals and an assist across the opening three matches, supported by consistently strong underlying involvement.

The 24-year-old has attempted 12 shots—only bettered by Bruno Fernandes and Erling Haaland—with nine of those coming from inside the penalty area. And his record against promoted opposition is equally impressive: 15 goal involvements in 15 Premier League appearances.

The Tigers’ league position looks formidable; their performances do not. And with a 70% win probability, Chelsea tick every box.

Liverpool vs Fulham

The Cottagers’ gamble on Álvaro Arbeloa is already becoming a concern.

Fulham have lost all three league matches and conceded seven goals, while the underlying defensive numbers suggest this is not simply bad fortune. They have allowed 6.24 expected goals—the second-worst total in the top flight—and conceded a league-high 14 big chances.

Their latest defeat was particularly damaging, having led Crystal Palace twice at Craven Cottage before losing a five-goal thriller.

And although Liverpool have not been flawless, their attacking threat offers a clear route to success in this matchup. The Reds have registered 5.41 expected goals, while Alexander Isak has scored three times from nine attempts—all of them from inside the penalty area.

Anfield also remains a major advantage. Liverpool are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League home matches, while Fulham have gone six away league games without a victory.

And to further strengthen the Reds’ case. Andoni Iraola is turning Liverpool into one of the Premier League’s most aggressive pressing sides: they have already forced 21 high turnovers, while their 8.2 passes per defensive action is the second-lowest figure in the league.

This could prove particularly uncomfortable for a Fulham side whose defensive structure has been repeatedly questioned over the opening weeks. More than a third (35%) of the shots they have conceded have been classified as big chances—the highest proportion in the division—while the average quality of those attempts stands at 0.156 expected goals per shot, the second-highest in the league.

European involvement must be a consideration, but a come-from-behind win over Atletico had the Anfield crowd bouncing as Liverpool began their Champions League campaign in style.

At 62%, Liverpool are statistically one of the weekend’s strongest options.

Sunderland vs Arsenal

Arsenal are the other obvious selection. The Gunners have won all three league games and carried that form into Europe in midweek, opening their Champions League campaign with a positive result in Naples.

The European schedule brings travel and a shorter recovery period, but Arsenal controlled the tie throughout and avoided being dragged into a physically draining contest. Given the strength and depth of their squad, Mikel Arteta could also make wholesale changes without substantially lowering the team’s quality.

And even without William Saliba, defence is where the Gunners’ strength lies…

Arsenal have conceded only 0.93 expected goals, one big chance and nine shots from inside the penalty area across their opening three league matches. Manchester City are next-best: sitting at 2.68 xGC. And the Premier League champions are not merely leading; they’re currently operating on a different defensive level.

Martin Ødegaard has also started the season in outstanding form. The captain has scored twice from 1.0 expected goals, while creating seven chances, two of which were big, generating 1.05 expected assists—the fourth-highest total in the Premier League.

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 17 league meetings with Sunderland, outscoring them 31-9, and you have to go back to November 2009 to find the Black Cats’ last league win.

You rarely find an away team with such statistical confidence (63%), but on this occasion, the way Arsenal are playing, that confidence feels justified.

Coventry City vs Brighton

Brighton are this weekend’s gamble—but perhaps the most interesting option for anyone who has already used the obvious elite clubs.

Coventry have opened with three consecutive defeats, with the loss to fellow promoted side Hull especially damaging. Confidence appears fragile, and they are already struggling to see where their first points may come from.

The Seagulls’ results, meanwhile, have not reflected the quality of their attacking play. Their 7.37 xG is the highest total in the Premier League, and they have attempted 56 shots, including 39 from inside the penalty area, and created nine big chances.

And this offensive threat could cause Coventry massive problems, given their passive approach to defending: 18.4 passes per defensive action—the third-highest figure in the league. The side has also faced 41 shots, including 26 from inside their own penalty area, and allowed 4.72 expected goals.

At 43%, Brighton are considerably less fancied than some of this weekend’s big hitters. Nevertheless, the underlying numbers and stylistic matchup make them a compelling differential.

The Verdict

Chelsea are the safest selection, with Hull’s perfect defensive record masking some extremely vulnerable underlying numbers. Arsenal and Liverpool are also strong options. European involvement adds a layer of uncertainty, but neither matchup provides enough reason to oppose them.

Brighton are the alternative for players willing to accept more risk—particularly those who have already exhausted the leading clubs.