World Cup
Final One Standing: Assessing The Last 32 Knockout Stage
The knockout rounds are where Last One Standing really begins.
The obvious group-stage mismatches have disappeared, and every remaining nation has earned its place. Margins are smaller, pressure is greater, and one mistake ends your tournament.
And the reward for resisting the temptation to burn the biggest favourites early is that you should still have several elite nations available just as the World Cup reaches its decisive phase.
Final One Standing: World Cup 2026 News
- Learn more about Final One Standing: World Cup 2026 Edition
- Tactics and Strategy Guide
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Colombia vs Ghana
Los Cafeteros’ narrow 1-0 victory over DR Congo in the group stage highlighted both their strengths and weaknesses. They showed they can break down an organised low block, but their finishing left plenty to be desired.
James Rodríguez has rolled back the years, ranking among the tournament leaders for chances created, yet Colombia have converted just 6.8% of their opportunities. Luis Díaz has also been surprisingly quiet, managing only three shots on target and generating just 0.9 expected goals despite being their biggest attacking threat.
Ghana, by contrast, have squeezed maximum value from limited opportunities, consistently outperforming their expected goals.
The wider context, however, favours Colombia. They negotiated a tough group, finishing unbeaten (W2, D1) in top spot above rivals Portugal.
And despite fairly average attacking numbers during the opening phase, you have to feel that this technically gifted side is capable of much more.
The predictive models agree, giving Colombia a 64.6% chance of progressing to the quarter-finals. Expect a tighter contest than many anticipate, but the South Americans should have enough quality to progress.
Spain vs Austria
La Roja still have questions to answer in attack.
Ferran Torres ranks among the tournament’s biggest underperformers relative to his expected goals metrics, while Spain‘s patient possession game has often lacked the cutting edge needed to turn dominance into an end product.
Fortunately, for them, Austria have looked vulnerable throughout the competition, failing to keep a clean sheet during the group stage, even against Iraq(!), while conceding the 16th-highest expected goals total of any remaining side.
Even more encouraging for Spain, Austria have allowed one of the highest xG-per-shot figures in the tournament, meaning their opponents are consistently creating high-quality chances.
Spain’s greatest strength lies in its ability to control matches through a possession-based approach that starves opponents of opportunities.
This has produced one of the tournament’s strongest defensive records, reflected in an impressive 63.7% clean-sheet probability. This should not be the match where Spain comes unstuck, and at 72.6%, their chances of victory make them one of the round’s safest selections.
Switzerland vs Algeria
Switzerland have been rewarded for winning their group with arguably one of the kindest draws available.
Algeria squeezed through by the narrowest of margins and still carries several weaknesses the Swiss should be able to exploit.
Algeria have dramatically underperformed their expected goals against, conceding 2.33 goals per 90 from just 1.13 xG. In short, defensively, the Algerians have not protected the goalkeeper well enough.
Switzerland, meanwhile, continue to do what Switzerland always do in major tournaments. They defend superbly, concede very little and remain exceptionally difficult to break down, allowing just 0.8 xG per 90 and only 0.10 xG per shot.
The only concern is at the opposite end of the pitch. Breel Embolo continues to frustrate, once again ranking among the tournament’s biggest xG underperformers.
The predictive models make this a coin flip, but that feels conservative given Switzerland’s gulf in tournament experience and defensive quality, and they look well-placed to carve out another typically controlled knockout stage victory.
Portugal vs Croatia
Portugal against Croatia feels like a meeting of two footballing generations.
Seleção das Quinas, so-called because of the five shields from the Portuguese flag, have seamlessly transitioned into another golden era.
While at the same time, Croatia’s remarkable cycle appears to be drawing to a close. Their starting XI against Ghana averaged over 30 years of age, making them one of the oldest teams remaining.
Portugal have not been spectacular, but they have been effective. Unbeaten in eight matches, they average two goals per game despite producing a fairly modest 1.4 xG per 90, a reflection of the clinical quality within their squad.
Bruno Fernandes has been their creative heartbeat, ranking second for through balls, while Vitinha has quietly become one of the tournament’s best ball carriers with 42 progressive carries.
The side also likes to dominate possession, averaging 62.2%, while pressing aggressively, allowing their opponents just 9.7 Passes per Defensive Action (PPDA).
Croatia approach things very differently. They sit deep, press infrequently and look to counter, yet they have still conceded 1.40 xG per 90 while generating only 0.92 xG themselves.
Portugal are yet to hit top gear, but they possess greater quality across the pitch. Croatia should make this game competitive given their tournament experience, but everything is pointing to a sad end for the Vatreni.
Argentina vs Cape Verde
On paper, this is the safest pick of the Round of 32, but you can rip up the pre-tournament form guide after Cape Verde broke the record as the smallest nation ever to reach the knockout phase.
The statisticians make Argentina massive favourites (81%), comfortably the highest of any knockout fixture. But that does not mean Cape Verde should be dismissed.
They have been one of the stories of the tournament, reaching the knockout rounds unbeaten despite sharing a group with Spain and Uruguay.
Pedro Leitão Brito, aka manager Bubista, has built one of the competition’s most disciplined defensive units, restricting opponents to just 0.09 xG per shot — identical to Argentina.
The problem is that La Albiceleste possess an attack unlike anything Cape Verde have encountered so far.
The reigning world champions average 1.92 xG per 90, combining defensive solidity with relentless attacking quality. Lionel Messi continues to defy time, leading the tournament goal-scoring charts with Kylian Mbappé, while orchestrating almost everything his side does in possession.
Perhaps, most encouragingly, for Last One Standing players, Argentina have already demonstrated they can dismantle deep defensive blocks.
Unlike several possession-heavy sides, they are comfortable going around, through or over compact defences, patiently waiting for the decisive opening.
Cape Verde deserves enormous credit for reaching this stage, but over 90 minutes, Argentina’s superior movement, creativity and finishing should prove decisive. It may not become the rout some expect, yet they remain a standout selection.
