Golf
BMW Championship preview: Scheffler to serve up third season victory
With the St. Jude Championship behind us the world’s best golfers head to Olympia Fields, Illinois for the second round of the FedEx Cup playoffs which as always brings the BMW Championship.
Scottie Scheffler – 7/1
Scheffler may not seem the obvious pick at a short price given his recent form, but the world number one remains a constant danger to the rest of the field. Having not had his greatest four days of golf last week as he finished T30 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Scheffler will be hoping to bounce straight back here.
The Olympia Fields course poses some extremely difficult challenges from tee-to-green with its narrow, firm fairways and thick rough which can be very tough to negotiate and cause some high-scoring blowup holes.
Scheffler is widely regarded as one of, if not the best, ball striker on the tour and that is heavily backed up by the statistics. He ranks first on the tour for strokes gained from tee-to-green, first for approaching the green, first for hitting greens in regulation, as well being amongst the top five players for strokes gained off the tee, combined driving distance and accuracy, and approach shots from inside 100 yards.
Scheffler has no problem with any wood, iron or wedge, but there is one club which sets him apart from the field and not in a good way. On average Scheffler loses shots to the rest of the field and ranks 146th on the tour for strokes gained putting. Scheffler has changed his putter in an attempt to recover his game on the greens but that proved ineffective last week as he ranked 62nd in a 70-man field for putting. However, he did gain strokes on the rest of the field with the flat stick in two of the four rounds which suggests his new putter may just have taken a bit of getting used to.
Scheffler is certainly not a big price at 7/1 second favourite, but if he can putt to even an average level then that will put him toward the top of the leaderboard and should he start gaining strokes on the field with the putter then no price looks too short for the world number one.
J. T. Poston – 66/1
J. T. Poston is one of the larger priced players in the field but we certainly don’t expect him to be dwelling towards the bottom of the 50-strong leaderboard at this year’s BMW Championship.
Poston offers a different angle to Scheffler in that he has one of the strongest putting games and is on a hot streak on the PGA Tour. Despite missing 10 cuts this season Poston has really turned it on over the summer months and has recorded top 10 finishes in four of his last six tournaments, with a T41 and T24 finish in the other two.
Poston’s putter has been his strong suit this season and he consistently gains strokes on the rest of the field on the green. This was emphasised last week as he ranked fourth in the 70-man field at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, gaining almost five strokes on the rest of the field over the four rounds with the putter in hand.
Poston is also no slouch in getting to the green but Olympia Fields has its challenges. He ranks 117th on tour for combined driving distance and accuracy which could cause issues on the narrow, fast-running fairways and thick rough. However, when approaching the green from under 100 yards Poston ranks 15th on the tour. It’s the getting into those areas that will be the challenge. Given the high scoring nature of the course, conservative play will be at the forefront and at 66/1 Poston could well play his way round safely to a place finish.
