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AT&T Byron Nelson preview: Burns looks sure to go well
One might expect a weaker field for this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson given its host course, TPC Craig Ranch, is one that seems a modest test. With wide fairways and big, flat greens, it doesn’t appear an idea prep for the test that Southern Hills, the host of next week’s PGA Championship, will present.
However, with nine of the top 20 in the world rankings in attendance, we have a stacked field and given the fact that last year’s tournament was won with a score of 25-under par, this looks a perfect opportunity for the world’s best to show exactly why they are just that.
World number one and Masters winner Scottie Scheffler heads the betting at 10/1, but we fancy a few players against him…
Burns looks poised for another bold showing at TPC Craig Ranch
Scheffler is more than worthy of his position at the head of affairs and is quite clearly the man to beat. Virtually everything he touches seems to turn to gold and if he brings the form he showed at Augusta into this week, he’ll take plenty of stopping.
If there’s one man who might just be able to do that it’s Sam Burns, who looks a leading contender at 20/1. Twice a winner already this season, Burns comes into this week on the back of a second at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans where he played beautifully alongside Billy Horschel. He missed the cut at Augusta prior to that, but given it was his debut, and as we know there aren’t many harder places first time out, it’s a performance that can be quickly ignored. Before that, he was seen winning at the Valspar and he seems to be a player to catch he’s hot.
Interestingly, his first PGA Tour win at last year’s Valspar came after a tie for fourth in New Orleans and he then followed that up with a second here last year. In addition, he was victorious at the Sanderson Farms Championship in October at the start of the new season and his worst finish in his next five starts was a tie for 14th. As such, it’s clear he’s one that plays well in patches and when he’s on, he’s really on.
As mentioned, he returns to TPC Craig Ranch having finished second here last year and the fact this is almost certainly going to be a birdie fest, should suit too. His three wins have come with scores of 17, 22 and 17-under par, while he was second here at 22-under last year, so it’s no surprise he ranked fifth for birdie average last season and ranks seventh in that category this term.
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Leishman and Straka can put missed cuts behind them
It might also be worth forgiving both Marc Leishman and Sepp Straka their missed cuts at the Wells Fargo and giving them another chance here.
Leishman played really nicely during the first round ranking sixth in Strokes Gained: Approach, 24th in Putting and 38th overall and had it not been for a dreaded shank from a bunker, his round would have been one of the best of the day. He didn’t play well on the second day, but given the way he played before that, his game is clearly in pretty fine shape and this is a course that should suit.
He hinted that with an opening six-under 66 in 2021 before settling for 21st and had it not be for some untidy play around the greens, he would have almost certainly got closer to the leaders. Granted he’s outside of the top 100 for around-the-green game, but he was superb at Augusta ranking second, so it’s certainly not like his short game is a million miles away.
Like Burns, Leishman seems well suited to low-scoring events – ranks 14th in Birdie Average this season – and has won events on the PGA Tour with scores of 23 and 26-under par. As such the relatively easy test this week should be right up the Aussie’s street at 40/1.
Straka has been in rock-solid form over the past few months with a maiden tour win at the Honda Classic followed by a tie for ninth at the Players Championship and a tie for third at Harbour Town. He’s missed the last two cuts, but played solidly here last year to finish 26th and that followed some other solid showings in Texas. He could go well at 55/1.
