Honda Classic preview: South Africans chanced at PGA National

One of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour, the PGA National hosts this week as plenty of golf’s stars tee it up at the Honda Classic.

While we might not have the strength in depth we had at the Genesis Invitational, the likes of Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger and Brooks Koepka are still in attendance so it’s not as though this is a weak field.

All have chances, but we like the look of two South African contenders…

Hoping King Louis can break his PGA Tour duck

A quick scan of the recent results of this event show that a player needs to have their tee-to-green game in fine fettle. The last six winners averaged third in that category, so it’s clear if you aren’t on it PGA National will catch you out. The fact those winners average 26th Strokes Gained: Putting suggest that while putting isn’t crucial, it’s still something that needs to be working well as there are going to be plenty of occasions when a player is going to need to rely on their flatstick to get them out of trouble.

Perhaps unsurprisingly the two players who rank highest in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green are the two favourites this week in Sungjae Im (12/1) and Daniel Berger (16/1). The Champion here in 2020, Im followed that victory with a T8 last year and given he’s already won this season at the Shriners, he’s a very worthy favourite. Berger is easier to dismiss, despite his good record here, given his recent fitness struggles.

You need to be a classy player to win around here and step forward Louis Oosthuizen, who is once again fancied to break his American duck this week. There’s no mistake that the South African doesn’t win enough, but he’s rarely not there or thereabouts and has a habit of grinding scores out – an attribute certainly needed here.

He has a curious record at PGA National with two withdrawals, two missed cuts and then two top 25s. The most recent of those top 25s came in 2018 and it was a result that could be marked up given he was right in contention through three rounds before a disappointing Sunday 75 dropped him out of the running. He showed he does have the capacity to play well here and his stats back it up as he ranks 14th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, first in Greens in Regulation and T4 in Bogey Avoidance.

Oosthuizen played pretty nicely in Phoenix and he should come on plenty for the outing with that his first start of the year. It’s worth noting his record in Florida is solid too with a second, sixth and an eighth in three of his last five starts in the state.

Open Championship winners have gone well here in the past and the 2010 winner can follow suit at 22/1.

Improving Bezuidenhout could take to Floridan track

South Africans Ernie Els and Rory Sabbatini (sort of) have lifted this trophy in the past and Christiaan Bezuidenhout could follow suit at 50/1.

He’s still relatively unknown by many but this guy is a classy player, who seems to thrive at tough golf courses. He won at Valderrama – arguably the hardest test on the DP World Tour – and was right in the mix at last year’s U.S. Open at Kiawah Island, so he won’t mind a tricky layout such as PGA National. Granted it’s not easy to win here on your first start, but given his relative inexperience on the PGA Tour, most courses he plays are still new to him and he hasn’t done too badly so far with a top 10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and a top 20 at the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational.

The South African ranks just outside the top 50 for bogey avoidance and scrambling and he might just surprise a few here.