Phoenix Open preview: Scheffler won’t Waste golden opportunity in Phoenix

It was somewhat of an anti-climax last week on the PGA Tour as inclement weather saw the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am wrapped up after just 54 holes, with Wyndham Clark claiming his third Tour victory.

Rain remains on the forecast in Phoenix, but to nowhere near the extent of last weekend, so with intermittent showers and enough sun, we should get all 72 holes in this week!

Last week’s 50/1 selection Beau Hossler was moving nicely, T14 through 54 with a strong final round more than on the cards, but alas luck was not with us as his push for a place was unfortunately cut short.

Hopefully we can find ourselves in similar contention after three rounds this Sunday, with our two selections below looking set to go well at TPC Scottsdale.

Scottie Scheffler 9/2

It is very rare that we tip a short-priced favourite in our previews, but at 9/2 Scottie Scheffler looks to be well clear of the rest of the field and could actually provide value, even at such a short price compared to his closest competitors.

The world number one comes here up against fewer of his high-ranking rivals than he is used to. Of the rest of the top five, Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele have all chosen to sit this one out, whilst Jon Rahm is of course ‘LIVing’ it up in Qatar this week.

Perhaps more impressive than his number one status is his form in this tournament, having won the past two editions and hunting a hat-trick this year. Scheffler won by two strokes here last year, scoring 19 under par in total.

He has established himself as the best ball striker on the Tour and in the world over the past few years and no one in this week’s field comes close to him from tee-to-green. TPC Scottsdale is one of the main courses where ball striking is at the forefront of low scoring, which will suit Scheffler’s ranking of fourth in the world for strokes gained from tee-to-green beautifully.

One dark cloud that continues to loom over the American is his putting. But every cloud has a silver lining, with Scheffler’s being that a hot flat stick is not completely necessary en route to victory here.

In winning here last year, Scheffler was just 13th in the field for strokes gained with the putter, but what really made the difference was his ranking of first for shots gained from tee-to-green. 9/2 is obviously a short-price, but Scheffler’s chances here are huge and if he can pull it all together he could go clear of the rest.

Keith Mitchell 80/1

Keith Mitchell makes his debut in our tips for this season after ‘Cashmere’ was a regular selection for us in 2022-23. He has started steady in 2024, making three out of four cuts and recording an impressive T9 finish at the American Express only three weeks ago.

His form at TPC Scottsdale as also not to be sniffed at. Mitchell has played the Phoenix Open five times, making four cuts and recording finishes of 73rd, 42nd, 16th and an impressive 10th in 2022.

His season’s stats also lend themselves to this course, with Mitchell ranking 13th on the Tour for strokes gained off the tee and 23rd for approach shots from over 200 yards. These allow him regular birdie opportunities on par four and fives, which could be crucial here.

Converting these opportunities has not been easy for him as he ranks 111th on the Tour for his putting, but as previously mentioned. the shakier putters can still make it work at the Phoenix Open.

At a price of 80/1, with eight places available at William Hill, he could find himself in the mix and has potential to better his T10 finish from 2022, when he finished just four shots behind eventual winner Scottie Scheffler.