Open Championship
The Open Championship preview: Xander can complete the four-timer
For many the Masters is their favourite Major and in all honesty that’s a totally fair thing to say, but there is perhaps one tournament that might just surpass it. That tournament is The Open Championship at St Andrews, and you don’t need us to tell you how special a combination that is.
There is just something about St Andrews that is truly unique and the fact that the ailing Tiger Woods made it his seasonal goal to compete here shows its significance to him as well as the rest of the golfing fraternity. He’ll of course be the main draw again this week, but if the great man were to win this it would surely top any of his superhuman efforts previously and in all honesty, a 16th Major victory looks virtually impossible these days.
Before we run through our fancies, with this being an Open, a quick note on the weather is needed. Current forecasts suggest that the wind will be virtually nil and while there’s always going to be a bit around in Scotland, it seems we’re virtually certain we won’t see the gales we saw back in 2010 which literally blew Rory McIlroy off course. With wind one of the course’s significant defences, scoring might end up being pretty low.
In-form Schauffele impossible to ignore
With little wind forecast, Rory McIlroy will surely be jumping up and down with joy and his record around St Andrews makes him very appealing at 10/1. Bar the fact he hasn’t won a Major since 2014, there isn’t really much of a case to put people off the Northern Irishman and he’ll do for many. However, that’s a long time to be Major-less and he has to be taken on purely on price grounds if nothing else.
And while many might argue that Xander Schauffele is similarly too short at 18/1, the American couldn’t be in better form and he gets the headline vote to win his first Major. With only the Olympic Gold medal to show for his efforts since January 2019, many were beginning to give up on Schauffele, with his lack of killer instinct beginning to haunt him. However, for whatever reason this year he has found that missing piece of the puzzle and is incredibly hoping to win his fourth tournament on the bounce.
Admittedly one of those was the JP McManus Pro AM, which while not an official event, still produced a high-class field and that followed a gutsy win at the Travellers Championship. Last week of course he got the job done at the Scottish Open where he had to overcome the bad side of the draw. He also won the Zurich Classic of New Orleans alongside good friend Patrick Cantlay earlier this year and since then his worst finish in seven starts is a tie for 18th at the Memorial. In short, he’s in the form of his life and will be riding the crest of the wave as he heads to St Andrews.
There might be suspicions of jadedness, but Jordan Spieth won this having won on his previous start, while Phil Mickelson did the Scottish Open/Open double back in 2013, so it’s perfectly reasonable to think Xander can keep the fine run going this week. He ranked first in Tee-To-Green stats last week and providing the putter stays hot, he will surely be a factor come Sunday afternoon.
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Homa makes Max appeal
The next man to consider is Max Homa who based on his exploits last week looks well up for this challenge.
The 31-year-old might have put in three rounds over par at the Scottish Open but he played really well on Saturday and was bang in contention halfway through the final round before he fell away towards the end. That great third round followed a late-night trip to North Berwick, somewhere he called a ‘bucket-list course’, which was surely aimed at further tailoring his game for Links golf. Whatever he learnt there clearly paid off on Saturday and it would have given him further belief that he has the game to compete in the Majors – something that has clearly haunted him previously.
He wasn’t at his best at the PGA but still managed a 13th place finish and while he didn’t really feature at the U.S. Open, he was inside the top 10 after the opening round and played well enough (12th in SG: Tee-To-Green) to be a factor only for an abomination with the putter. Given his short-game is more often than not a strength, it’s a week that can surely be counted as a blip. That was shown by a much better putting display at the Scottish Open where he was out in front off the tee, but was held back this time by irons. Again, strange given he’d gained shots on approach in every start since the Tournament of Champions in January.
If he can get all areas of his game working and with his new-found confidence, Homa could be a big player at 40/1.
Three further fancies
Of the remainder of the pack, Tony Finau, Keegan Bradley and Aaron Wise are worth a second look.
Finau has been playing pretty consistently for a while now and boasts a solid Open record with a worst finish of a tie for 27th in five appearances. He’s been hitting the ball really well recently and with his putter much better these days, he could go well at 40/1.
Bradley started his Open career well with three good showings and while he’s struggled in the tournament recently, he was the best iron player at the U.S. Open and he’s beginning to get back to the putting stats that served him so well in days gone by. He might be a touch overpriced at 100/1.
Finally, Wise, a 125/1 shot, has done plenty to suggest that elusive second win isn’t too far around the corner. He has four top 10 finishes on the PGA Tour this season and with top 30s in both Major starts in 2022, he has pedigree in the bigger tournaments too.
