Golf
Tour Championship preview: Back-to-back titles on the horizon for McIlroy
With two rounds of the FedEx playoffs behind us the starting positions for the Tour Championship have been decided and it’s all down to this tournament.
With staggered starting scores the chasing pack will have to put on an impressive display if they are to catch Scottie Scheffler at East Lake.
We preview the key contenders below.
Rory McIlroy – 7/2
Rory McIlroy will head back to East Lake Golf Club this year with a title to defend and the Northern Irishman will be determined to land his fourth FedEx Cup.
Since 2019 the players have been allocated a starting score based on their FedEx Cup ranking heading into this, the final tournament of the season. Number one ranked player Scottie Scheffler will start at -10, with Viktor Hovland in second starting at -8, whilst McIlroy will start at -7, with the rest of the field split from -6 down to even par.
McIlroy would have hoped to be starting two shots behind Scheffler at worst but Hovland’s late charge to win the BMW Championship last weekend saw him shoot up to second in the rankings. However, this is unlikely to phase the four-time Major winner as he has won his last two Tour Championships starting six shots back and seven shots back respectively, making him the only player to win the Tour Championship in its current format having not started 10 under par.
McIlory has certainly not struggling for form at this course in the past and his total of 263 strokes round East Lake last year is the second best score of all-time, behind Tiger Woods’ 257 back in 2007. His recent form on the PGA Tour is not too shabby either having finshed T9 or better in all of his last 10 outings dating back to early May. This includes a T3 and a fourth place finish at the other two FedEx playoffs events.
Previous performances would tell you that McIlory’s game is well suited to the East Lake course and he has the stats this season to back it up as well. East Lake suits the elite ball-strikers on the Tour of which McIlroy is certainly one. Ranking as one of the easiest courses in terms of strokes gained on and around the greens last year, driving and approach play will come into the frame much more than putting. This favours McIlroy who ranks second on the Tour for strokes gained from tee-to-green, but just 75th for strokes gained putting. McIlroy won’t want the pressure to pile on to his putter and will hope to narrow the gap on Scheffler as early as possilble. When he has that kind of motivation feed off, odds of 9/2 for McIlroy to be first round leader could provide good value.
Whilst East Lake suits McIlory down to a tee it will be the same for Scheffler who is also one of the best from tee-to-green, but unlike McIlory the American doesn’t look below average with the putter, he looks virtually hopeless. It is set up for a contest for the ages between McIlroy and Scheffler with a ball-striking masterclass on show as they go toe-to-toe, and as the underdog of the two at 10/3, starting two strokes back McIlroy will relish the challenge and hope to pip the American to the post just weeks before he will face him again at the Ryder Cup.
Xander Schauffele – 25/1
Xander Schauffele has had his fair share of top quality performances at East Lake with the American finishing runner-up here in both 2019 and 2020, as well as winning the Tour Championship back in 2017.
Starting seven shots back from the leader at -3 it is highly unlikely that Schauffele will be able to produce enough to win the Tour Championship but he could still provide good value at 25/1 with a place finish very much on the cards.
The American has been the best player at East Lake once before when in 2020 he shot the lowest gross total score of anyone at the tournament with a combined 265 across the four rounds to finish tied T2 behind Dustin Johnson who had started at -10.
As previously mentioned the East Lake course favours the ball strikers and approach players over elite putters, and Xander Schauffele could make a claim to be in both of those categories. Whilst he is not as effective off the tee as many other players the American ranks fifth on Tour for strokes gained approaching the green and first for appraoches from 150-175 yards which could prove incredibly effective in turning par fours into birdie opportunites.
Schauffele has been one of the fastest starters on the Tour this year and that sees him rank fourth for first round scoring average. Taking the FedEx Cup strokes out of the equation there is every chance that Schauffele could post the best score of the first round at 14/1, and if he were to kick on from a big start he could provide great value to win the Tour Championship without FedEx Cup strokes at 11/1.
