Sport
The Guineas Favourites discussed
The first two of the five English Classics, the 1000 and 2000 Guineas have been considered the ultimate test of a racehorse since their inauguration in the early 1800s.
Both run over a mile at Newmarket’s Rowley Mile Racecourse, the Guineas are restricted to the very best three-year-old racehorses; the 2000 Guineas open to both colts and fillies, while the 1000 Guineas is for fillies only.
Both races are worth £500,000 and are the first prong of the notoriously unobtainable ‘Triple Crown’, whereby a horse must win three Classics. The colts’ Triple Crown pattern is the 2000 Guineas, followed by the Epsom Derby, followed by the St Leger Stakes. The fillies’ version is the 1000 Guineas, then the Epsom Oaks, and finally the St Leger Stakes alongside the colts.
Here we will discuss the favourites for this year’s 2000 and 1000 Guineas, based on the form of their two-year-old campaign, going preference and trainer’s record in the race.
The 2000 Guineas
Currently the short-priced favourite, Auguste Rodin, having won the Group 1 Futurity Trophy Stakes over a mile decisively as a two-year-old, is the best qualified runner over a mile. Few of his opponents have such good form over the distance, if at all.
Coming from Aidan O’Brien’s yard gives the colt’s winning claim a significant boost, as the Irish trainer has trained 10 2000 Guineas winners over his career already. Auguste Rodin looks very likely to be the 11th.
The only careful consideration to be made where Auguste Rodin’s chances are concerned is the ground. His best form is on soft and heavy ground, whereas he was beaten on good ground on debut. It might be that softer ground helps the son of Deep Impact to outshine his rivals and, as we have seen little of him on good going, we cannot be sure of his effectiveness without some cut in the ground. Fortunately for Auguste Rodin, though, there is some rain due at Newmarket this week.
Another O’Brien-trained horse, Little Big Bear, is second favourite, and while he is rated significantly higher than the favourite, he is untried over a mile. The No Nay Never colt was outstanding as a two-year-old over five to six furlongs, winning four races by a combined 14¾ lengths.
Though he has never before run over a mile, Little Big Bear has the pedigree to stay further, with his dam and some of her other progeny having won over a mile and a quarter.
If there is less rain than currently anticipated ahead of the 2000 Guineas, this colt will fair well on good ground, but also has won on softer. This could be the deciding factor between the O’Brien pair on the day; Auguste Rodin should be best in softer conditions, whereas Little Big Bear should prefer better going.
The third favourite, Andrew Balding’s Chaldean, also looks to have an ideal CV ahead of the 2000 Guineas. The winner of four races over seven furlongs as a two-year-old on a variety of going, the son of Frankel ought to have no issues stepping up to a mile, and may benefit from an extra furlong.
His reappearance at Newbury last month, when he was 5/4 Favourite, caused much amusement and dismay when his rider, Frankie Dettori, was unseated breaking from the stalls. Encouragingly, though, Chaldean continued to run along with the field most professionally, judging his pace and galloping with enthusiasm, which showed that he is good order following a winter break.
He should not be hampered by rain or otherwise, and it’s worth taking note that he is rated slightly above Auguste Rodin. He could be the next horse to win the 2000 Guineas for Andrew Balding, whose last success in the race was Kameko in 2020.
The 1000 Guineas
Trained by Dermot Weld, Tahiyra is the current favourite for the 1000 Guineas. A daughter of Siyouni, a miler himself, and out of a mile winning mare, she has both the pedigree and the form to be a 1000 Guineas winner.
Although she hasn’t much racecourse experience, having only run twice last summer, those two runs were staggeringly good performances. On debut, the filly won a seven-furlong maiden by five and a half lengths, and followed this up with an impressive win of the seven furlong Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes.
She outclasses her rivals significantly both on that form and her rating of 118, and has shown that she can cope with both softer and better ground. Altogether, Tahiyra looks the one to beat.
Second favourite, running in the same colours as Auguste Rodin in the 2000 Guineas and coming from the same trainer, Aidan O’Brien, is Meditate. Again, the trainer has an extraordinarily good record of winners in the 1000 Guineas, having trained five of the last 10 winners.
If Meditate can beat Tahiyra, which she failed to do back in September when they first met, she could the one to bring the prize back for O’Brien, who failed to win the race last year for the first time since 2019.
What Meditate does have over the favourite, however, is proven capability over a mile. Her last outing was a victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf over a mile on firm ground. We know that she is effective over the trip, but has all of her best form on good or firmer ground. Tahiyra beat Meditate on soft, which suggests that O’Brien’s filly will be disadvantaged should the rain come. A dryer surface could boost her claims.
Fairly new at the top of the market for the 1000 Guineas is Mammas Girl, trained by Richard Hannon. Similarly to Tahiyra, Mammas Girl has been lightly raced, appearing only once as a two-year-old to win a novice fillies’ race at Newmarket, and making her three-year-old debut in a similar fashion, winning the seven-furlong Group 3 Nell Gwyn Stakes at the same course last month.
She was 16/1 for this contest, having not entered the considerations of many bettors, but ran a tremendous race under Sean Levey despite being slowly into stride. This form tells us she can step up to a mile happily, and now having won on good and good-to-soft ground, can handle a bit of cut in the ground.
A step up to Group 1 company will show us what she is really made of in comparison to her top-class opponents.
