Nick Luck’s Blog: Rhyme and reason at Ayr and Newbury

Ayr, Saturday

TITAN ROCK gets a narrow vote in the TV opener at Ayr on Saturday (1.15pm) at 11/2. A winner at this meeting from a five-pound higher mark in 2021, he’s always been very capable in this sort of company, and comes into this off a very solid effort. That was his first run back from a break, and he normally takes a run to get fully wound up.

ROYAL RHYME can take the Doonside Cup (1.50pm) at 7/4. Even with hot-shot My Prospero a non-runner, the rest of the field will have to get out of bed pretty early to beat the selection with cut in the ground, as Royal Rhyme romped at Goodwood in a race that could hardly have worked out better. What is more, he did so in a sensational time in the conditions.

WOBWOBWOB looks a solid choice in the Ayr Silver Cup (2.25pm) at 9/1. This stiff six could take a whole lot of getting in the conditions, but he won’t have an issue with that, having posted a fabulous effort over seven on heavy ground at Goodwood. He’s sharpened up with a decent third in the Great St Wilfrid since, and will appreciate this slight ease in grade.

PRETTY CRYSTAL looks overpriced at 13/2 in the Firth of Clyde (3.00pm). She probably should have won the Princess Margaret over this trip, but had too much to do in a race where pace held up. Subsequently, she handled the ground well at Goodwood, but just failed to stay seven in soft ground. It was no disgrace to be beaten only a couple of lengths by Darnation, and this will be easier.

ROHAAN is about to have his day once again in the Ayr Gold Cup (3.35pm). He’s mainly run in Group Ones this season, sometimes with distinction, but his two runs in big field handicaps have been his best. The problem is that they were both over 5 furlongs, and he clearly needs every bit of six to be at his best nowadays. He also loves really testing ground: he’s a Group 2 winner on heavy. Add the handicapper’s gradual relent, and you have a pretty tempting proposition, particularly as he will have a good few pace horses drawn high to chase. 12/1.

Newbury, Saturday

NYMPHADORA might be the answer to the opening sprint at Newbury (1.30pm) at 4/1. It is asking a lot to take short odds about Sense of Duty on very soft ground after a layoff, while Raasel doesn’t really want a small field. The selection is a rock solid filly with cut in the ground, and can pretty much be relied upon to run her race.

SALT BAY may start to repay connections’ faith in the Autumn Cup (2.05pm). A Group One third in heavy ground last year still makes him look quite well treated, and I didn’t mind his run at Hamilton in stakes company, only fading late and looking ill at ease on the track. This course will suit much better. 13/2.

CERTAIN LAD appears somewhat overlooked at 8/1 in the ten-furlong race (2.40pm). Although more exposed than some, he handles conditions well, and is in pretty good form. He ran a great race in deep mud off 6 pounds higher in the spring, and was a bit unlucky to run into a handicap blot at Sandown last time.

MISTER SKETCH looks a colt with really significant potential in the Mill Reef (3.15pm). Haatem aside (and he would be a danger if back to his best), I’m unconvinced that this is an especially talented group. Although the selection beat a flimsy field at Salisbury, he was brutally impressive, and has earned favourable comparisons from his trainer with Indian Run. That, allied to the clock last time, suggests he should be hard to beat. 11/4.