Nick Luck
Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Chester May Festival 2026 Day One Best Bets
William Hill ambassador Nick Luck previews the ITV action from day one of the Chester May Festival.
Wednesday, Chester
Wait Geordie is an unimaginative selection in the Lily Agnes (1:30pm) but gets the vote here. There are lots of previous winners with credentials, but this one was clearly targeted for the race from a long way out by the local stable.
He has the form that is working out best from Bath, with winners emerging from the pack subsequently. He has plenty of pace, was well fancied that day, and, albeit that I make it tight on what they’ve achieved so far between him and Adonius, the receipt of the penalty may well tilt the scales in his favour.
Supido is my answer to the 2:05 at Chester. He’s a little bit chancy and still hasn’t really fired for this stable, but he certainly showed enough at this meeting last year to suggest there were races in him, and he’s now tumbled down to a mark 8lb below that perfectly respectable effort.
I think the key is that, albeit he doesn’t need to lead, he is well drawn and doesn’t want to squander that position. All he needs to do is get away on terms, and that gives him a big chance here from a handicapping point of view, particularly with Billy Loughnane, who rode him on this day last year, booked to take the ride.
Sugar Island is surely the value at the current odds in the Cheshire Oaks (2:35pm). I’m The One made a big impression on her debut at Newbury and was hailed as the next Enable, and it may well be that she’s a class act, but at these odds she’s an unproven filly. The selection is a horse that has won a Group 3 and has been placed in the May Hill.
She’s bred to do an awful lot better over a significant distance and, for a progeny of Dubawi, she achieved quite a rare amount as a two-year-old. She’s also got quite an unusual amount of conditioning under her belt. With that in mind, although she’s the apparent second string for Aidan O’Brien, we saw what happened in the Guineas the other day, these are always horses you take a second look at, and she makes the most appeal at the prices.
I’m embellishing a little bit of a theme here, but I feel like the O’Brien second string, Proposition, might be the value in the Chester Vase (3:05pm). Clearly, Benvenuto Cellini, who is currently Derby favourite, is the one to beat, but if you pick through the form of that Futurity win at Leopardstown, it’s nothing particularly special.
He was then defeated by Hawk Mountain quite comfortably at Doncaster in a race that really was just a Ballydoyle trial. So, you’ve got another Ballydoyle horse here in Proposition, who’s got the best pedigree in the race as a Frankel half-brother to Magical, out of a brilliant Group 1 winner, and a ready maiden winner bound to improve over further, with cheekpieces applied suggesting a measure of intent today.
I think he’s the significant danger to the favourite and, if there is a little bit of ease in the ground, I’m not sure that will be up Benvenuto Cellini’s street. I think it might play more into the favour of Proposition. This is supposition, but that’s the way I’m playing it.
Star Material is quite interesting at a price in the 3:40. I didn’t think the comeback run was too bad at all, considering he completely fluffed the start. Now he’s up a furlong, which is going to help, and if there’s a little bit of cut in the ground, that will help as well.
He’s come down the weights a little bit and, if the visor has the effect of getting him out of the stalls on terms, which it should do, then he’s not going to have to build too much on that seasonal debut to get involved off this sort of mark on a track that I think he might quite enjoy. He’s a perfectly good each-way price, and that’s the way I’ll be playing it.
