Nick Luck’s William Hill blog: Scottish National & Newbury Tips

William Hill ambassador, Nick Luck, previews Ayr’s Scottish National card and Classic trials from Newbury

Ayr, Saturday

LE NEZ CREUX is worth a shot in the opening handicap chase at Ayr this afternoon (1.10). He was well above average in France, and followed up a sequence of progressive performances with a luckless fifth to the best horse of his generation at Auteuil. He probably should have been second, and it looks highly likely the handicapped has been kind with a mark of 132. In addition, he’ll enjoy the softish ground where others may not. Traprain Law is feared most.

KDEUX SAINT FRAY makes some appeal in the Champion Novices’ (1.45). He’s had a long enough season, but the same applies to most of these, and he’s taking a dip in slightly calmer waters here. He’s certainly worth another try at three miles, particularly going left handed, and his run at the Festival can be easily excused after a rotten start that left him on the back foot throughout. He’s been dropped a couple of pounds for that, which is no hardship.

ALL IN YOU is very interesting in the Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.20). He has speed to burn, and could be extremely well suited to this track and likely set-up. He was never in the hunt in a weird race at Newbury, but I’d be inclined to forgive that, and he comes here relatively fresh and open to plenty of improvement off this mark.

GAME COLOURS looks to have possibilities in a very open mares’ race (2.55). She’s done really well for this yard, invariably running her race until biting off more than she could chew in the Imperial Cup. Back against mares, she will be much more comfortable, while there are quite a few clues in her pedigree – and one or two in her past performances – that indicate that this significant step up in distance might be precisely what she needs.

KIM ROQUE wins no prizes for originality, but is the pick in the Scottish National (3.30). He’s shaped nicely in competitive handicaps all season, but you couldn’t have been sure as to his distance requirements until Cheltenham, where he was really only just getting going at the end of the Kim Muir, never nearer than when hitting the line. Fundamentally, he looks one-paced, but with the relatively good cruising ability that will serve him well round this track. JJ Slevin takes over, and he is sure to deploy this horse’s energy efficiently.

Newbury, Saturday

SPLISH SPLASH each way might be the best way to play the Fred Darling at Newbury (1.25). Although I have no doubt Touleen has the star quality here – and I’d love her to turn on the style – there is nothing left in her price, and I’d rather back one to run well at big odds. The selection’s final effort last year looks all the better following Azleet’s Nell Gwyn success, and this well bred filly is likely to be ready for today.

ZAVATERI should probably be odds on in the Greenham (2.00). Although there was a deal more encouragement in Albert Einstein’s comeback than many perceived, and a hood combined with better ground could do the trick, he’ll have to be right up to his lofty billing to beat one of last season’s best two year olds, whose form has not really been let down. Of course there are lurkers in here who could progress past him in due course, but he should be too sharp for them for now.

CONVERGENT can resume progress in the John Porter (2.35). He looked potentially out of the top drawer when winning at Leopardstown last autumn before beating a very solid yardstick at Longchamp. He sank without trace in Munich, easily attributable to the heavy ground, and should enjoy something more conventional here.

STEM is the pick in the Spring Cup (3.10). He’s far less exposed than most of these, and has always received good notices from his trainer. He had a light campaign as a three year old, his two best efforts have come at this track, and he looks nicely drawn here on yesterday’s evidence. He could be a stakes horse in another run or two.