Nick Luck’s Blog: Can he Steel the Champion Stakes?

Ascot, Saturday

TRAWLERMAN can spring a surprise at 11/1 in the Long Distance Cup on QIPCO Champions’ Day (1.15pm) to ensure that Frankie Dettori retains the limelight a little longer. A cursory glance at his form suggests that he’s a fast ground horse, but the truth is he’s hardly tried soft ground bar his good third in this last year. He doesn’t have much to find on Trueshan and Coltrane on that run, and while he’s beaten up marked inferiors the last twice, he’s done it with great relish, suggesting he might have improved a fair bit. He comes here with confidence high, and potentially the dominating speed from stall one on the tight inside track.

SENSE OF DUTY is another play at odds of 12/1 in the Sprint (1.50pm). She has clearly been nearly impossible to train this year, but her five length thumping of Annaf last season on just her fifth lifetime start is a feat that hardly any of these could have achieved. The comeback run was underwhelming at first glance, but it was over a wholly inadequate sharp five. Back to a stiff six, she ought to at least be able to give herself a chance to show what she can do.

ABOVE THE CURVE is too high class a filly to be fifth in the betting at 17/2 in the Fillies’ and Mares’ (2.25pm). She has plenty of tactical speed to get a good prominent position from an advantageous draw, appreciated soft ground, and has a whole stack of runs this season that read really well in this company. Although she’s not strictly bred for this test of stamina, she just lacks a gear and could just improve for it.

NASHWA can make it 2-0 against Paddington in the QE2 (3.05pm) at 7/2. She’s thrived with racing this season after a slow start and, although she’s run huge races the last twice, her win on softened ground over a straight mile in the Falmouth was so explosive that I’ve been longing to see her with that sort of test again. My feeling is that Big Rock and Chaldean could soften up Paddington in a strongly run race, and that Nashwa will be the beneficiary if played at the right moment. At a massive price, I’ll also be having an each-way interest in CHECKANDCHALLENGE at 66/1, who ran a screamer when a luckless fourth in this last year, and for whom it can never be soft enough.

KING OF STEEL might really turn on the style in the British Champion Stakes (3.45pm). He’s been well handled by Roger Varian this season, and galloped out strongly at the end of the Ballydoyle tactical masterclass at Leopardstown. Learning his craft with each run, this huge animal may well be positioned more forwardly under his new rider, and may now be able to switch off better as he matures. A testing ten furlongs at a venue where he has already excelled twice looks right up his street. 4/1.

AL MUBHIR is the pick in the Balmoral (4.25pm). The ground on the straight track should be really horrible by the last race, but this guy wants it borderline unraceable. He was pretty unlucky not to win from a higher mark at Goodwood, while the trip was too sharp and he lost a shoe at Newbury. He’s never run here, but a stiff straight mile could really suit him. 11/1.