Nick Luck’s blog: Gold Cup Day at Cheltenham

The final day of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival and another superb day looks in store with the highlight of course being the Gold Cup.

Our man Nick Luck has been in good form this week and here are his Friday selections.

Cheltenham

IL ETAIT TEMPS gets the nod at 10/1 in the Triumph Hurdle (1.30pm). It is easy enough to believe the Spring juvenile at Leopardstown is the best form, particularly as Gordon Elliott suggests Fil Dor is better than Pied Piper, and the selection rattled home impressively for a close third, really belying his inexperience. He is surely only inches behind his two conquerors yet is open to by far the most improvement granted a greater test of stamina. He looks very interesting.

COLONEL MUSTARD against makes quite a bit of appeal in the County Hurdle (2.10pm) at 15/2. He has had plenty of experience now for a novice and ran a mighty race behind Sir Gerhard and Three Stripe Life at Leopardstown. Add that to his solid effort behind Jonbon at Ascot and you have a horse who must be better than a mark of 140 and can run well away from home and on an easy surface. He won’t have a problem going the pace and must run well.

HILLCREST is a horse of freakish ability and is still at the time of writing a backable price at 7/2 for the Albert Bartlett (2.50pm). His physique makes him so deceptive: apparently not very quick while actually running huge times and leaving rivals who attempt to chase him toiling in his wake. Yes, he has a tendency to kick the odd hurdle out of the way, but I’m really not sure it matters too much in his case. While I’m confident in his chances, I can’t resist having a little each-way on STAG HORN at 14/1, whose Warwick effort has been rather underestimated – he’s a very talented flat horse to be doing this, is pretty hardy and won’t mind an attritional race.

A PLUS TARD – after much soul searching – gets the final vote for the Gold Cup (3.30pm) at 4/1. I feel he should have won last year’s race, but he was always slightly less well positioned and covering more ground than the winner. He also seems best after a decent break and, if we get the version that showed up at Haydock, he’ll be really hard to beat. I’m not at convinced as some that he’s a doubtful stayer but – either way – he’s unlikely to have to run at such a stern gallop as last year. The deciding factor, however, is the overreaction to the ground that is now built into his price. He’s plenty of form on soft, including here – that won’t be a valid excuse. Having made the case for TORNADO FLYER on the preview circuit, I’m going to keep him on side at 12/1, in the belief that the King George winner has rather been hiding in plain sight and will actually relish the trip having run well over inadequate distances at Festivals past.

PREMIER MAGIC gets a sporting each-way nod at 16/1 for the Foxhunters’ (4.10pm). To my reading, there are seven or eight horses of comparable ability here and, with Billaway taking too big a chunk out of the market yet again, the selection is a lovely price. He has a smooth verdict over last year’s winner Porlock Bay in the books, has evidently improved since his run in last year’s John Corbett (where the ground was a bit quick for him), stays and jumps really well and will be well suited by conditions.

ZAMBELLA is an each-way play at 10/1 against the powerful Irish contingent in the mares’ chase (4.50pm). She might well have placed in this last year but for falling and looks marginally improved this time. By contrast, Elimay has not looked quite as good, while Mount Ida might find this a bit sharp and Concertista doesn’t look a complete natural for chasing.

I A CONNECT (14/1) looks one of the few Irish horses to have escaped the clutches of the British handicapper in the Martin Pipe (5.30pm). He beat an on point Suprise Package in the autumn, but has been laid away to protect his mark and can give a bold showing from a prominent position. I’ll also be having a few quid on COBBLERS DREAM at 16/1, whose trainer knows what he’s doing when he’s got a good one and who looked pretty smart when running away with the Lazarote.