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UFC 271 preview: Middleweight elite go head-to-head for the second time
Ahead of a huge night of UFC 271 action, we’ve previewed three massive fights that should make for an electric night of MMA.
Read on for the lowdown of all the action and the best bets to look out for.
Adesanya (C) v Whittaker (#1) – Middleweight title fight
This is as high-level as MMA comes. If this was boxing it would be Mayweather v Pacquiao. If it was football, it would be Manchester City v Liverpool. In their last 20 combined fights in the UFC’s middleweight division, they have won 19 of them, with Robert Whittaker’s only loss coming to his opponent on Saturday night, Israel Adesanya. This is the best against the best.
For Whittaker, perhaps in another world he would still have the belt that he won against Yoel Romero in 2017. After all, and he has proved as much with his domineering form since losing the belt, ‘The Reaper’ is one of the best all-round mixed martial artists in the world and is a step ahead of every other middleweight. Except for one.
Unfortunately for the Australian, that man is Israel Adesanya, who after obliterating his way through the division in just two years, took the belt from his Oceanic rival in a little over eight minutes at UFC 243. A champion kickboxer, one of the best in the world, he has shown that an encyclopaedic martial arts brain enables him to bring an improved version of himself to the octagon on each appearance, and having seen off Marvin Vettori for a second time in his last fight, he continues his second lap around one of the sport’s toughest divisions with a rematch that has seemed inevitable.
The first fight in truth was a striking masterclass from the now champion, and arguably the opposite for the man that had entered with the belt. Whittaker looked rushed, overly aggressive and was jumping into Adesanya’s striking range. Admittedly, ‘The Last Stylebender’ reached levels of counter-striking rarely reached in MMA, but Whittaker played into Adesanya’s hands, and was duly punished. After being saved by the bell in round one, Adesanya dropped Whittaker for a second time midway through round two with a brutal counter left hook to complete his ascension to the top of the sport.
The second fight should play out a lot differently. Whittaker has spoken at length about being too eager in the first meeting, and not leaning on his wrestling enough. He got into a firefight with Israel Adesanya, and nobody comes out of that unscathed. He has improved since losing the belt, putting on his own masterclasses against Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum, but his opponent has improved too. As Adesanya has fine-tuned his all-round game, he has matured. He stays calm and picks his shots, rarely putting himself into dangerous positions anymore and whilst many point at his defensive wrestling as his apparent weakness, he showed against Marvin Vettori that getting him down is one thing but keeping him down is another.
This one could start a lot slower than the first meeting, and distance could be the play here. Five of Adesanya’s last seven fights have gone the distance, whilst 10 out of Whittaker’s 19 UFC appearances have seen the judges. Unless he’s playing the bluff, you would expect Whittaker to be looking to take the fight to the clinch and to the ground, and not allow Adesanya to get too much striking away. Izzy has fought these type of fights before though and definitely has the skills to edge this one. He’s currently 13/8 to win by decision which seems a sensible way to go, and he’s 1/3 to win the fight outright. Whittaker is currently the 23/10 outright underdog, and his best path to victory may also come via the judges at 4/1.
Derrick Lewis (#3) v Tai Tuivasa (#11) – Heavyweight fight
It wouldn’t be a UFC PPV event without a main card heavyweight banger and this one is no exception. No fighter in history has more knockouts (13) than Derrick Lewis, and Tai Tuivasa has won each of his last four fights by KO/TKO. This one promises to be explosive.
After losing an interim title fight to Ciryl Gane back in August, Lewis admitted that his days of fighting five round fights might be over and as such, it appears as though all roads to a heavyweight title fight now run through Derrick Lewis. As Chris Daukaus learnt in the first round of their recent meeting, however, Lewis will be in no mood to roll over for up and coming contenders.
One of those contenders is ‘Bam Bam’ Tai Tuivasa, who after three consecutive losses has seen a dramatic turnaround in fortunes, with four straight knockout wins, and none going longer than two rounds. With his larger-than-life personality as well as his explosive knockout power, he’s becoming a real fan favourite and a win on Saturday night would undoubtedly be the biggest of his career to date.
Lewis is the current 8/15 favourite to win, and it’s hard to look past him doing so by knockout at 8/11. Tuivasa is the 6/4 underdog, and with his record, 9/4 to win by KO/TKO also represents good value.
Jared Cannonier (#3) v Derek Brunson (#4) – Middleweight fight
Whilst the questions surrounding the middleweight title will be answered in the main event, the question of who will be next to challenge for the belt may well be answered further down the card – particularly if Israel Adesanya retains – and the winner of this clash of number three against number four could well be next.
Since losing to the now champion in November 2018, Derek Brunson’s change of tact has been rewarded with five consecutive wins. A former three-time All-American Division 2 wrestler, Brunson had landed just two takedowns in his previous 10 fights before the Adesanya loss and has since landed 19 in his proceeding five fights. This change of approach has seen him climb back through the rankings and another win here would put him firmly in the conversation for a rematch with the champion.
After moving down from light heavyweight, many had declared Jared Cannonier as a potential boogey-man at 185lbs. However, after three straight wins was followed by a loss to Robert Whittaker, his momentum has stalled somewhat. A win over Kelvin Gastelum in August has him moving in the right direction and he’ll be looking to make a big statement with his performance on Saturday night.
It seems likely that Brunson will lean on his wrestling once again, with Cannonier’s takedown defence a modest if not impressive 62%, whilst Cannonier will look to be the more dangerous in the striking.
Cannonier is currently the favourite at 8/13, but with the form in his favour and a potential advantage on the ground, Brunson seems a live underdog at 13/10. Brunson has only seen the bell in 35% of his 23 UFC appearances, whilst Cannonier has been the distance in 40% of his, so inside the distance either way should be the play here.
