MMA
UFC 330 Predictions, Odds and Betting Tips
UFC 330 lands in Philadelphia this weekend with a huge welterweight title fight at the top of the card, as Islam Makhachev puts his belt on the line against contender Ian Machado Garry.
Makhachev is making his first defence of the welterweight title after moving up from lightweight, while Machado Garry has the opportunity to produce the biggest victory of his career and become UFC champion. The fight takes place on Saturday, August 15 at Xfinity Mobile Arena.
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The prediction
Machado Garry has the tools to make this difficult. His striking, movement and defensive wrestling could frustrate Makhachev, particularly if he can maintain distance and avoid being trapped against the fence.
However, Makhachev’s ability to impose his grappling game is difficult to overlook. He has repeatedly demonstrated that even elite opponents struggle to prevent him from getting the fight into his preferred positions.
The 3/10 price reflects that confidence, and while Machado Garry is good enough to make this competitive, Makhachev should eventually take control.
Prediction: Islam Makhachev by decision.
Makhachev the clear favourite
The market strongly favours Islam Makhachev, who is priced at 3/10 to defeat Ian Machado Garry, with the Irishman available at 5/2.
Makhachev’s move to 170lbs has already been rewarded with championship gold, and he now has the chance to establish himself as the dominant force in a second division. His elite wrestling and grappling remain the foundation of his game, but his striking has developed significantly throughout his UFC career.
Machado Garry represents a very different challenge. The Irishman is a rangy, technically gifted striker with excellent defensive wrestling, and his height and reach advantages could make this a fascinating stylistic matchup.
Despite that, Makhachev’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place is the major reason he is such a strong favourite.
How will it finish?
The method-of-result market provides an interesting insight into how the fight could play out.
Makhachev is 2/1 to win by submission, making that his shortest-priced method of victory. A decision success is even shorter at 6/5, suggesting a long, controlled performance is considered his most likely route to retaining the title.
A Makhachev KO victory is available at 15/2.
For Machado Garry, a decision victory is priced at 9/2, while his KO route is also 15/2. A submission win is the outsider at 25/1.
The pricing reflects the contrasting strengths of the two men. Makhachev’s grappling makes him a constant submission threat, while Machado Garry’s clearest route may be to keep the fight standing and use his range and movement.
What victory means
For Makhachev, this is about more than simply retaining another championship. Having already established himself as one of the greatest lightweights in UFC history, successfully defending the welterweight belt would strengthen his claim to being one of the sport’s elite pound-for-pound fighters. The UFC itself has highlighted his desire to continue adding to his legacy at 170lbs.
For Machado Garry, the opportunity is enormous.
An upset victory would make him UFC welterweight champion and potentially establish him as one of the biggest stars in European MMA. Defeating a fighter of Makhachev’s calibre would also represent the defining victory of his career by some distance.
Prices accurate at time of writing – odds subject to change.
