UFC 267 Preview: Blachowicz looks to make second light heavyweight defence

UFC 267 from Fight Island, Abu Dhabi kicks off a massive fortnight of fights for the UFC, with UFC 268 following right along next week from the incomparable Maddison Square Gardens.

Fresh off a win over Israel Adesanya, light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz will test his famous Polish power against the veteran Glover Teixeira, who is peaking late in his impressive career.

Elsewhere on the card, former bantamweight champion Petr Yan looks to win the interim belt against Cory Sandhagen, who steps up for the opportunity despite coming off a tight loss to TJ Dillashaw in his last fight and Khabib Nurmagomedov’s protégé Islam Mackachev faces his toughest test to date against battle-tested Dan Hooker.

We run through all the odds below in our fight preview.

Jan Blachowicz v Glover Teixeira – UFC Light Heavyweight title

With 75 professional fights between them, this a tale of experience and refusing to be told that a title dream was out of reach. Jan Blachowicz had lost four of his first six UFC fights, before putting together an explosive run of 9 wins in 10 that now sees him with gold around his waist. Teixeira on the other hand has been a perennial contender, but always faltered in the big spot, with losses to the likes of Jon Jones, Anthony Johnson and Corey Anderson holding him back from the title shot he craved.

His latest turn in form though sees him come into this on a five-fight winning streak, four of which have ended in finishes. His experience has shone through at times, striking where necessary but mauling his opponents and using his weight and strength against them. He may come into this one billed as a submission artist, but don’t discount his dangerous and heavy striking.

Although statistically the two are well matched on their feet, you would expect the champion to have the advantage having won three of his last five via KO/TKO. Neither are particularly high-volume strikers, with Jan landing 3.59 strikes per minute, compared to 3.75 for Glover, but Jan prefers to box from range and absorbs only 2.79 strikes per minute, compared to Glover, who likes to close the distance and wrestle, absorbing 1.05 more strikes per minute in the process.

In truth that’s where the battle in this one may be won and lost. If Glover is able to close the space and engage the clinch, he may have the wrestling abilities to get Jan on his back and land some nasty ground and pound. With 10 career submissions, he’s capable of finding the finish on the ground too. Jan on the other hand will try to use his leg kicks, as he did to devastating effect when winning the title against Dominick Reyes, and his jab to keep Glover at range to catch him with big shots when he does try to close the distance.

Glover’s most likely method of victory seems to be submission at 7/1, given that’s the weakness in Jan’s game he theoretically should be able to exploit. Jan on the other hand carries the most knockout potential and is 11/10 to do so on Saturday night.

Petr Yan v Cory Sandhagen – UFC Interim Bantamweight title

It’s perhaps unusual for a title fight to feature two fighters both coming off a loss, but as a result we’ve ended up with a fantastic match up, and what should be an explosive fight. Former champion Yan lost his belt in controversial style following an illegal knee against Aljamain Sterling, and he will be looking to put himself one win away from becoming a two-time champion here. Sandhagen lost a tight decision to TJ Dillashaw last time, but an injury for the former champion sees him get given an unexpected opportunity to land interim gold.

Yan is particularly well rounded and is one of the elite competitors in the UFC. His striking is varied and high-volume, and he has excellent takedowns and offensive wrestling. He landed a UFC-career best seven takedowns against Sterling landing more than double the number of strikes against Jose Aldo. He’s beating people at their own games.

Sandhagen is as dangerous a striker as they come and can finish a fight from anywhere. His last two wins have come via flying knee KO and by spinning heel kick KO, and he lands more than six strikes per minute in the UFC. He’s no rookie on the ground, but you’d expect Yan to have the edge there. Sandhagen is more likely to keep to range and look to land explosive strikes coming forward.

Two of Yan’s last five fights have gone to decision, and he’s 6/4 to take a victory on the cards here. Sandhagen’s best chance looks to be a KO/TKO win and he’s available at 11/2 to do so here.