Politics
UK Politics Odds: Farage’s Next PM chances in ‘free fall’ after Clacton by-election
Despite winning comfortably in Clacton, Nigel Farage has been pushed out to 4/1 from 7/2 to be the Next Prime Minister with William Hill
Farage’s chances have been dented after by-election rival Count Binface secured 9,455 votes, equivalent to 26.9%, meaning the leading bookmaker paid out on its “over 25% vote share” selection at 5/2.
Farage won the contest with 22,239 votes, or 63.3%, while Binface’s result was the highest vote share achieved by the novelty candidate.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is the clear 3/1 favourite ahead of Farage in the market to be Andy Burnham’s successor. Farage’s price has moved from 7/2 to 4/1, having already drifted from 9/4 in the days before the by-election.
Farage’s Reform UK party have drifted out to 9/4 to secure most seats at the next General Election, with Labour 11/8 favourites and the Conservatives priced at 5/2.
Farage is 6/4 to be replaced as Reform leader this year, with Robert Jenrick the 9/4 favourite to take the reins, ahead of Zia Yusuf at 3/1.
– Kemi Badenoch – 3/1
– Nigel Farage – 4/1
– Shabana Mahmood – 12/1
– Angela Rayner – 14/1
– Rupert Lowe – 14/1
– BAR – 16/1
Most Seats in Next General Election:
– Labour – 11/8
– Reform UK – 9/4
– Conservatives – 5/2
– Restore Britain – 14/1
– Greens – 28/1
– BAR – 16/1
– Robert Jenrick – 9/4
– Zia Yusuf – 3/1
– Richard Tice – 5/1
– Danny Kruger – 8/1
– BAR – 12/1
– 2026 – 6/4
– 2029 or later – 11/4
– 2027 – 3/1
– 2028 – 7/2
*Odds subject to change – prices correct at time of writing.*
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “Nigel Farage may have won Clacton with room to spare, but his chances of becoming next Prime Minister are in free fall.
“Farage has drifted out to 4/1, with Kemi Badenoch the 3/1 favourite. Reform UK have also eased to 9/4 for most seats at the next election, with Labour the 11/8 favourites and the Conservatives 5/2.
“Count Binface’s tally of almost 10,000 votes was the result that really caught us out – breaking the 25% vote share threshold was a popular selection for our punters, with more than 40% of bets and over half the money staked. Paying out at 5/2 made it the biggest loser for us on the night.”
