UK General Election: The latest odds for Number 10

Officially the next United Kingdom general election must take place no later than January 2025, but it’s beginning to become apparent that current Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will eventually announce an election later this year, meaning Britain will go to the polls to elect their party of choice for the first time in four years.

The Conservatives won their biggest share of the vote since the turn of the century in the 2019 election, but that result is almost certain to be overhauled by the current electorate in 2024, with Labour forecasted to make enormous gains.

We provide an update on the latest key markets below.

Most seats

Labour – 1/14

As mentioned, Labour are forecast to make an incredible resurgence in the upcoming general election, being given odds of 1/14 – the equivalent of a 93% chance – of amassing the most seats when the British public go to the polls this year.

Conservatives – 13/2

The Conservatives look set to lose their massive 80-seat majority from the last general election and are a much bigger price at 13/2 to secure an unlikely victory this term. With the Tories already on their third Prime Minister since the 2019 vote after Boris Johnson and Liz Truss resigned within a few months of each other, it seems they’re destined for their first election loss since Tony Blair’s Labour won in 2005.

Prime Minister after next General Election

Keir Starmer – 1/6

Whilst Labour leader Keir Starmer is by far the likeliest candidate to be the next Prime Minister after the next general election, it’s interesting to note the disparity in the two prices between his odds to become PM and Labour to win the most seats. Starmer certainly has his critics within the Labour party, so it’s not inconceivable that the party go into the next election with someone else at the helm.

Rishi Sunak – 5/1

Rishi Sunak wasn’t even in Boris Johnson’s main Cabinet when the Conservatives won the 2019 election, serving as Chief Secretary to the Treasurer for a year before being appointed Chancellor of the Exchequer. He too has various internal – as well as external – doubters about his ability to lead the country beyond 2024 and his odds of 5/1 suggest it’ll take some serious convincing of the electorate to secure another term in office.

Next Government

Labour Majority – 1/5

Such is the confidence in Labour’s chances of winning the next general election that they’ve been given odds of 1/5 to not only overturn the Tories’ current majority, but spin it in their favour completely. All four of the last Labour governments have been majorities, with Tony Blair masterminding three of them and Harold Wilson claiming a tiny three-seat majority in 1974.

Labour Minority – 4/1

A Tory government in any capacity doesn’t even come into the question for the likeliest scenarios of the next general election, with a Labour minority and subsequent coalition the next probable outcome. They are 7/1 to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats to see them over the line and 20/1 to join forces with the Scottish National Party.

Conservative Majority and Conservative Minority – 10/1

Both a Tory majority and minority have been given outside chances at 10/1 of happening after the public next go to the polls. The Conservatives are no strangers to coalitions in the modern era, with David Cameron joining forces with the Lib Dems’ Nick Clegg in 2010 after the first hung parliament in 36 years, but it’s considered unlikely that such a scenario will occur this time.

Check out all the latest political betting markets at William Hill