US Presidential Election race so far

Preparations for the 2024 US Presidential Election are beginning to crank up as the country braces itself for potentially the first Presidential rematch since 1956. The 60th quadrennial election will see the incumbent Joe Biden run for re-election – presuming he is nominated to represent his party – whilst his predecessor Donald Trump is fancied to make a strong challenge for November’s vote.

The stage is set for another gripping political saga that could reshape the future of several countries across the globe. We dissect what to expect below.

A rematch amidst external and internal chaos

They may be the same candidates on paper, but so much has happened between both Donald Trump and Joe Biden – and to their respective parties generally – that this election campaign promises to be incredibly unique.

Most notable are the legal complexities casting shadows over Trump’s candidacy. The Colorado Supreme Court and the Maine Secretary of State technically rendered Trump ineligible, citing his alleged role in the Capitol attack in January 2021. These decisions introduce an element of uncertainty that underscores the legal intricacies surrounding Trump’s bid for a triumphant return to the White House, though the Republican is the 5/6 favourite to be sworn in next January.

Despite his legal entanglements, Trump has clearly emerged as a formidable contender. Indictments over hush money payments and classified document handling seemed to bolster rather than diminish his standing among supporters. The spectre of a Trump comeback, fuelled by robust polling numbers, positions him as a central player and an early favourite for November’s vote.

Joe Biden, the seasoned Democrat, is also having to navigate an array of challenges, grappling not only with a formidable opponent but also with internal party dynamics. Murmurs of a late leadership change are beginning to become louder as Biden’s age and purported memory lapses have become focal points of concern. After spending most of his term as the odds-on favourite for another four years, his price for victory has drifted out to 9/4.

Enter Michelle Obama, the influential former First Lady, whose potential entrance into the political arena emerges as a dynamic subplot. While Trump is the heavy 1/20 favourite to represent the Republicans, the race to spearhead the Democrat campaign is much more in the balance, with Obama 4/1 to be nominated and Biden 4/11.

Within the Democratic ranks, Biden’s ability to lead the party to victory is clearly being questioned. Obama’s hypothetical entry would provide a sensational twist, hinting at a potential recalibration of Democratic strategy and leadership.

Key issues such as abortion, healthcare, border security, and democracy will likely become the focal points from a political perspective, with candidates’ positions holding sway over a diverse and discerning electorate. Trump’s assertive stance on border security and his pledges to ‘destroy leftism’ resonates with a significant voter base outside of the cities and he would do well to dumb down most of the live televised debates in order to make his campaign more of a dogfight.

Whatever the result of the 2024 US Presidential Election, it is set to be another political thriller in what is shaping up to be a momentous 12 months for global politics. Trump will feel he has the wind in his sails after an encouraging reception to his initial campaigning, but don’t rule out the Democrats throwing one last roll of the dice in their bid to keep the keys to the White House.