Japanese Grand Prix Betting Preview And Race Predictions (2025)

After back-to-back Grands Prix to start the season, the teams and drivers have had some time to analyse, rest, and recover before the season heads to Suzuka for its third race.

The F1 betting markets unsurprisingly price the two McLaren drivers as the clear favourites for the race after the papaya team recorded a calm, uneventful one-two in Shanghai.

McLaren were thought to be the fastest car coming out of preseason testing. A chaotic race in Melbourne and underperformance in sprint qualifying made the field look much closer than it was on race day in China.

It’s a win apiece for Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, with the former given a slightly shorter betting price to stand on the podium’s top step in Japan.

Ferrari Woes

Lewis Hamilton – after a brilliant sprint qualifying lap and sprint race – was off the pace over a full race distance in Shanghai. He was unable to keep up with teammate Charles Leclerc, who suffered front wing damage on the first lap.

Ferrari had a frustrating enough couple of hours at the Chinese Grand Prix as it was, unable to keep up with the Mercedes of George Russell or the two McLarens. A few hours after the race, the Scuderia found themselves with no points after Leclerc and Hamilton were both disqualified.

Leclerc’s electric pace gives the Italian team something to build on heading to Suzuka. The way their car handled the slower sections in China might bode well for the corners in Japan, but Leclerc was unable to match the Mercedes or McLaren on the straights.

Red Bull Latest Driver Switch

It only took two races for Red Bull to give up on the Liam Lawson experiment. That’s ruthless even for Helmut Marko and Christian Horner, who have relentlessly cycled through drivers in the second seat next to Max Verstappen.

Yuki Tsunoda gets an overdue shot at the cursed second Red Bull, hoping he can avoid the fate which saw Alex Albon, Lawson, Pierre Gasly, and others quickly demoted.

Verstappen has claimed the Red Bull is the fourth-fastest car. He’s been competitive in both races, however, and shouldn’t be ruled out at Suzuka. The Dutchman has won the last three Japanese Grands Prix.

Don’t Sleep on Mercedes

Russell finished less than two seconds behind Norris in Shanghai. It wasn’t that close for the vast majority of the race, with Russell able to close the gap in the latter stages when Norris had some brake issues.

Still, Russell has started the season with consecutive podiums and looks a good bet to make that three in a row. The Brit hasn’t finished higher than seventh at Suzuka, but this is the most competitive car he’s had since joining Mercedes full-time, and he had excellent pace throughout the Chinese Grand Prix.

While McLaren are the team to beat, Russell and Verstappen both have a fighting chance if Norris and/or Piastri slip up.

Japanese Grand Prix Winner Odds:

• Lando Norris – 6/4
• Oscar Piastri – 15/8
• Max Verstappen – 6/1
• Lewis Hamilton – 10/1
• Charles Leclerc – 12/1
• George Russell – 12/1
• Yuki Tsunoda – 33/1
• Kimi Antonelli – 66/1
• Carlos Sainz – 150/1

Japanese Grand Prix Schedule

April 4

• Practice 1 – 3:30am-4:30am
• Practice 2 – 07:00am-08:00am

April 5

• Practice 3 – 3:30am-4:30am
• Qualifying – 07:00am-08:00am

April 6

• Race – 06:00am start time

Previous Japanese Grand Prix Winners

• 2024 – Max Verstappen
• 2023 – Max Verstappen
• 2022 – Max Verstappen
• 2021 – Cancelled
• 2020 – Cancelled
• 2019 – Valtteri Bottas
• 2018 – Lewis Hamilton
• 2017 – Lewis Hamilton
• 2016 – Nico Rosberg
• 2015 – Lewis Hamilton
• 2014 – Lewis Hamilton
• 2013 – Sebastian Vettel
• 2012 – Sebastian Vettel
• 2011 – Jenson Button
• 2010 – Sebastian Vettel
• 2009 – Sebastian Vettel
• 2008 – Fernando Alonso
• 2007 – Lewis Hamilton
• 2006 – Fernando Alonso
• 2005 – Kimi Raikkonen
• 2004 – Michael Schumacher
• 2003 – Rubens Barrichello
• 2002 – Michael Schumacher
• 2001 – Michael Schumacher
• 2000 – Michael Schumacher

Most Wins at the Japanese Grand Prix

• Michael Schumacher – 6
• Lewis Hamilton – 5
• Sebastian Vettel – 4
• Max Verstappen – 3
• Gerhard Berger – 2
• Ayrton Senna – 2
• Damon Hill – 2
• Mika Hakkinen – 2
• Fernando Alonso – 2

*Odds subject to change – prices correct at time of writing*