Football
Final One Standing: Gameweek 5 Predictions
Not played Final One Standing yet? It’s simple… Pick a Premier League team each week, and you must win to stay in!
Chelsea
History tells us that in times gone by, this was a tricky fixture to predict. But both sides are nowhere near the levels they were in their Premier League pomp, and an outcome should be a lot more clear-cut. For United, summer spending saw them recruit the likes of Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo, and with a full preseason under Ruben Amorim, optimism was high at Old Trafford.
But despite some encouraging underlying data, their solitary win came against newly-promoted Burnley from the penalty spot deep into time added-on. Chelsea, on the other hand, buoyed by being crowned Club World Cup champions, appear to be on an upward trajectory and come into this game as firm favourites.
Offensively, the Blues have hit the ground running and currently sit joint-first for Goals Scored (9) and Big Chances (12), with an 8.17 xG (3rd) from 60 shots (2nd).
In addition, they do look a lot more defensively resolute, but a midweek loss to Bayern Munich in the Champions League may have dented their confidence… This is not to overlook their fragilities, but United appear to still be in transition.
The Red Devils’ underlying data promises much, but it has delivered very little… with no top-flight team demonstrating a bigger underperformance in front of goal. The side are more than four goals below where they should be, while in defence, goalkeeping uncertainty continues to hamper their ability to shut out the opposition.
With squad strength and depth, Chelsea look good for the win, and the three points are backed by the compilers, which gives Enzo Maresca’s men a 40 per cent chance of victory.
Leeds United
Two solid results at Elland Road – versus Everton and Newcastle – suggest the side has more than enough to maintain a strong fight to stay in the Premier League, but points on the road against teams that will be involved in the dog fight will go a long way to securing their status.
Transitioning from the Championship is not easy, but Daniel Farke will be pleased by the attacking impact of German Anton Stach, who has already managed double-digit returns for Key Passes (10) and Shots (10). But injuries and a little bad luck have stifled output, and with only one goal from 3.63 xG, the Lilywhites must improve…
However, in Wolves, Leeds face a side that has conceded nine times in four matches (19th), with no clean sheets. They also sit in the Bottom Three for Shots Conceded (55) and Non-Penalty xGA (7.2).
Yes, performances suggest the results may have been better – they are the only team to have lost all four games so far this season – but this underperformance is a continuation from 2024/25, where Wanderers conceded 12.5 more goals (69) more than their 56.5 xG.
Leeds will be looking to pile on the misery at Molineux and stretch Wolves’ four-game winless run against the newly promoted side, especially with doubts over the fitness of last season’s top goal scorer, Jørgen Strand Larsen.
Burnley
Despite losing to a last-gasp Mohamed Salah penalty in week four, the Clarets go into this contest confident that they can take points off Forest to maintain Ange Postecoglou’s winless run since taking charge.
In their promotion season (24/25), Burnley were unbeaten, conceding only eight times across 23 matches, and good home form is imperative if Scott Parker wants his side to stay up… and the early signs are good.
Their win against fellow promoted side Sunderland gave the Clarets their only points, and they were unfortunate to come away with nothing from games against Manchester United and Liverpool, in particular, the latter, which saw the Reds only break the deadlock once Burnley were down to ten men.
Liverpool did rack up 26 shots during the game, but only three found the target, with the home side showing their defensive fortitude.
Meanwhile, Forest arrive on the back of consecutive 3–0 defeats, while they blew a two-goal lead in the Cup midweek, conceding twice in added time, allowing second-tier Swansea to progress.
Ange Postecoglou has his work cut out, arriving controversially following the sacking of Nuno Espírito Santo and leaving the club in a state of flux as the new manager looks to implement his footballing philosophies in stark contrast to the previous coach’s pragmatic approach. This rebrand may take time to show results.
Given their home strength and the visitor’s current fragility, this is an excellent opportunity to back Burnley, who are enjoying their return to the top table.
Sunderland
This weekend could be full of surprises, and a win for the Black Cats would mean their best start to a Premier League season (10 points).
With only one loss across their opening four fixtures, Sunderland have taken maximum points at home, and one more would see them equal their record of total home wins in 2016-17 (three).
Régis Le Bris has spent over £150m this summer, and this investment has paid off during the early weeks, with Sunderland sitting in the top half of the table (7th).
Sunday provides the ideal time to be playing Aston Villa, who are the only team across English football’s Top 7 leagues yet to score a goal (and only the fifth team in Premier League history to fail to score in the opening four games of the season).
In nearly every metric, Villa are rated among the worst in the league… 3.06 xG (19th), 7.4 xGC (19th), plus they have the highest xG per shot conceded in the Premier League.
The arrival of Jadon Sancho and Harvey Elliott will help, but the loss of Youri Tielemans – the 2024/25 Supporters’ Player of the Season and Players’ Player of the Year – to injury cannot be overstated.
Back Sunderland for a shock win as the Villains’ poor start continues…
