Madrid Open Round Of 32: Drama May Unfold Over Course Of Weekend

The round of 32 of the 2026 Madrid Open takes place across Saturday and Sunday, with William Hill News previewing some of the standout matchups.

Madrid Open Tips – Round of 32:

• Lorenzo Musetti -3.5 games (4/5)
• Jannik Sinner -6.5 games (17/20)
• Jaqueline Cristian under 5.5 games (8/11)
• Hailey Baptiste vs Jasmine Paolini – Both players to win a set (11/8)

Below are four of our favourite tennis betting picks for the weekend slate.

Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti

This marks only the second senior meeting between Tallon Griekspoor and Lorenzo Musetti. Griekspoor was victorious in the previous contest, coming from a set down to beat Musetti on the hard courts of Rotterdam in 2024.

Both players won their previous matches in straight sets. Griekspoor saw off Damir Džumhur, while Musetti got the better of Hubert Hurkacz.

Losses to Arthur Fils and Valentin Vacherot represent a slow start to the clay-court season for Musetti, but the Italian went 19-5 on this surface last year. He should get this wrapped up relatively easily.

Jannik Sinner vs Elmer Møller

Wins over Gabriel Diallo and wild card Federico Cinà have earned Elmer Møller a matchup with world number one Jannik Sinner. This is the Dane’s first match against Sinner.

Benjamin Bonzi had the rare achievement of taking Sinner to a third set in the last round. The Italian has been in almost perfect form over the last couple of months and should have no problem blowing Møller away.

This is a complete mismatch. Møller has been a good story, but he’d do well to avoid a hammering here.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jaqueline Cristian

Peyton Stearns was no match for Aryna Sabalenka. Jaqueline Cristian dropped the first set of her second-round match to Yuliia Starodubtsev, who is ranked outside the world’s top 50.

The only previous meeting for these players was a 6-3, 6-1 triumph for Sabalenka at Indian Wells this year. Since then, Cristian has disappointed in Rouen and Linz. She’s fallen to a 13-10 record on the year.

Cristian is 0-7 against top 10 opponents over the last year. That run isn’t going to end here with Sabalenka on course for another deep run.

Hailey Baptiste vs Jasmine Paolini

The betting markets can barely split these players. Hailey Baptiste might be the 30th seed, but she beat Kaitlin Quevedo in emphatic fashion in the second round. Jasmine Paolini was pushed to three sets by Laura Siegemund.

This is their first meeting since Paolini beat Baptiste in the 2024 French Open. Baptiste has only got a 2-4 all-time record against top 10 players and has made a slow start to the clay-court season after a quarter-final showing at the Miami Open.

Paolini disappointed in Stuttgart and hasn’t had the best start to the 2026 campaign. A champion in Rome last year, the Italian is at her most comfortable on clay, but her performance in the last round was hardly convincing.

*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*