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Eurovision: Semi Final Night 1 Predictions
The curtain rises on Eurovision 2026 tonight in Vienna, and with 15 countries battling for just 10 spots in Saturday’s Grand Final, Semi Final 1 is already shaping up to be one of the most compelling openers in years. Here’s how the market sees it, and where the value might lie.
Outright favourites Finland
Let’s start with the obvious. Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen are the runaway outright favourite to win the whole contest, and their qualification tonight is essentially a foregone conclusion as the markets have them at 11/10 to win the competition outright.
“Liekinheitin” has dominated the betting since the national final, topped the OGAE fan poll, and only grown stronger as rehearsal clips emerged. The confirmation that Lampenius will play her violin live added a further boost.
Drawing the seventh slot in the running order, Finland aren’t just qualifying, they’re arriving. The question isn’t ‘if’ they go through, it’s whether the performance cements them as the must-beat act heading into Saturday. They are justifiably the 4/7 favourites to win Semi Final 1.
Sweden and Greece
Behind Finland, Sweden’s Felicia with “My System” and Greece’s Akylas performing “Ferto” are the next most confident qualifiers.
Greece (1/200) has climbed sharply in recent weeks with strong vocal deliveries in both rehearsals at the Wiener Stadthalle have fans convinced they can challenge at the very top come the final.
These two, alongside Moldova (1/9), Croatia (1/12), Serbia (2/9), Lithuania (4/11), and Montenegro (EVS), form the cluster of acts the bookmakers view as near-certain to qualify, each sitting odds-on in the qualifying market.
The battle for the last spots
This is where Semi Final 1 gets a bit more interesting, as the markets suggest. The bottom 8 countries will have everything to play for, and this is where the drama could play out.
Estonia’s Vanilla Ninja with “Too Epic to Be True” climbed into a qualification spot following the first rehearsal and is currently 11/8 to go through. Poland’s Alicja, performing “Prayer” in the penultimate slot, has surged to 4/6 after staging clips landed well. The second-to-last position has historically been strong for the televote, and “Prayer” has the anthemic quality that plays well to a crowd calling in their votes.
Georgia have fallen sharply and now sit outside the top ten by a meaningful margin. Unless something goes very right live, they look like the most likely casualty. Belgium’s Essyla is the other act on the bubble, hovering at 7/4 to make it to the finals.
The prediction
Based on where the markets stand, the ten most likely qualifiers are Finland, Sweden, Greece, Moldova, Croatia, Serbia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Estonia, and Poland, with Belgium and Portugal close enough to sneak through if the live show throws up a surprise.
One name is circled regardless: Finland. They are the act of this contest and tonight should be the moment Vienna’s Wiener Stadthalle reminds Europe exactly why.
Semi Final 1 takes place tomorrow night, Tuesday 12th May, 8pm.
*Prices accurate at time of writing – odds subject to change*
Check out the latest TV/Showbiz betting odds with William Hill
