MMA
UFC Fight Night: Umar Nurmagomedov v Song Yadong Predictions
The UFC heads to Shanghai this weekend for a fascinating bantamweight clash as Umar Nurmagomedov takes on Song Yadong in a fight that could have major implications for the division, according to William Hill News.
Umar Nurmagomedov enters the contest as the clear favourite, with the Russian looking to continue his march towards the top of the bantamweight division. Standing in his way is Song Yadong, an experienced and dangerous contender whose striking makes him a serious test for the unbeaten Nurmagomedov.
The fight takes place on Saturday, August 29 at the Oriental Sports Center in Shanghai.
Prediction
Umar Nurmagomedov is a strong favourite at 1/6, with Song Yadong available at 4/1, but the more interesting angle could be found in the method of victory markets.
With the fight priced at just 4/9 to go the distance, the odds suggest this could be a closely contested three-round affair. If Nurmagomedov is expected to win without stopping Yadong, his 11/20 price to win by decision looks the value play.
Our Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov to win by Decision – 11/20
Fight to go the distance – 4/9
Umar’s decision appeal
Nurmagomedov’s style makes a decision victory particularly appealing. The Russian has established himself as one of the division’s strongest grapplers, regularly using his wrestling and control to dictate the pace of fights.
His record also points towards a fighter who is comfortable winning rounds rather than relying solely on a finish. Nurmagomedov has won 11 of his professional bouts by decision, while his ability to control opponents on the ground should give him opportunities to bank rounds against Yadong.
The fight being priced at 4/9 to go the distance strengthens the case further. Rather than backing Nurmagomedov at a short 1/6 to simply win, the 11/20 available for a decision victory offers a more attractive route.
Can Song Yadong force the upset?
Song Yadong certainly has the striking ability to make this competitive. The Chinese contender has nine professional knockout victories and possesses the power to punish Nurmagomedov if he can keep the fight standing.
However, Nurmagomedov’s ability to mix his striking with relentless grappling should make it difficult for Yadong to consistently impose himself.
Nurmagomedov has also shown his ability to go deep into fights, most notably when beating Cory Sandhagen by unanimous decision over five rounds. His combination of wrestling, control and defensive ability makes him a difficult opponent to finish, while Yadong’s best chance may be to win enough striking exchanges to swing the judges.
Ultimately, Nurmagomedov should be able to dictate enough of the fight to get his hand raised, but Yadong’s durability and experience make a stoppage less likely.
Fight Result Odds:
- Umar Nurmagomedov by KO – 6/1
- Umar Nurmagomedov by Submission
- 4/1 Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision – 11/20
- Song Yadong by KO – 9/1
- Song Yadong by Submission – 33/1
- Song Yadong by Decision – 8/1
- Draw – 40/1
With the fight already priced at 4/9 to go the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov’s 11/20 price to win by decision looks the most appealing way into the market. Expect the Russian to use his superior grappling to control the contest, with Yadong’s striking and durability helping him hear the final bell.
Prices accurate at the time of writing – odds subject to change.
