Open Championship

Open Championship Predictions 2026: 20/1 Fancy Heads Birkdale Best Bets

1 hour ago

| BY Sam Cox

Who will win the Open Championship this week? William Hill News previews the action ahead of the first round at Royal Birkdale on Thursday.

Royal Birkdale, located in Southport, is hosting The Open for an 11th time. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the pre-tournament golf betting favourites ahead of hometown star Tommy Fleetwood.

Interestingly, we’ve not seen a Brit win The Open since McIlroy’s title in 2014. Americans have won the last three editions. The final major of the year, The Open is the oldest of the four majors and carries with it unmatched history, dating back to 1860.

The Open Outright Odds:

Scottie Scheffler – 15/2
Rory McIlroy – 8/1
Tommy Fleetwood – 14/1
Matt Fitzpatrick – 14/1
Jon Rahm – 22/1
Xander Schauffele – 22/1
Robert MacIntyre – 25/1
Justin Rose – 25/1
Chris Gotterup – 25/1

The Course

Described as one of the ‘toughest driving courses’ by Fleetwood, Royal Birkdale saw a 20-shot difference between its last two Open champions. Jordan Spieth was 17-under in 2017, but Pádraig Harrington had the rare situation of winning a major while shooting over par in 2008.

High wind speeds are the factor that can completely transform this course. The weather, as of June 14, is set fair for the weekend with winds not getting above 10 mph. Accuracy is paramount off the tee, and all the bunkers are in play, but there will be some low scores if the forecast proves accurate.

Fairways and greens are pretty flat. Driving accuracy is a key component this week and play around the greens needs to be excellent.

British Open Trends

Playing in the Scottish Open has proved a key indicator of Open success in recent years. The last four Open champions have finished 15th or higher at the Scottish Open, and 10 of the last 14 Open champions have warmed up by taking on the Scottish Open.

Adjusting to links golf is important. Some have chosen to do so elsewhere, like former Open champion Shane Lowry, but anyone coming in cold is at a distinct disadvantage.

Louis Oosthuizen’s stunning win in 2010 is the last time anyone won the Open without previously finishing in the top two at a major. Nine of the last 11 champions had won earlier in the season.

Despite being a nomadic event, previous success on the links courses used by the Open is significant. The vast majority of champions have had previous top-10 finishes at the Open.

There have been some famous outsider wins at the Open over the years, but only one of the last 57 majors has been won by a player outside the world’s top 50.

Best Bets For 2026 Open Championship

Robert MacIntyre to Win (Each-Way to 10 players at 20/1)

Links form? Check. Strong history at The Open? Check.

Robert MacIntyre finished third at the Scottish Open and has three Open Championship top-10 finishes to his name. The Scot has played very solid all-around golf since missing the cut at the Memorial Tournament.

With an excellent career record on links courses, and plenty of confidence from consecutive top 10 placings, MacIntyre should be in the mix going into the final round.

Russell Henley Top 10 Finish (9/2)

Russell Henley is second in scrambling rate on the PGA Tour. Birkdale tends to favour accuracy off the tee over distance, so Henley’s lack of power won’t hold him back much (if at all).

The veteran American has been the most accurate driver on the PGA Tour over the last three months. We know how good a putter he can be. Play around the greens hasn’t been great over his last four events, but we still think this weekend is perfect for Henley to land a third straight top 10 finish at The Open.

Si Woo Kim Top 10 Finish (4/1)

Si Woo Kim has five top 10 finishes in his last nine events. His record at The Open is poor, with two missed cuts in the last three years, but he finished 15th in 2022 and has been excellent on approach shots over the last few months.

Kim’s lack of driving distance won’t matter too much at Royal Birkdale. He is one of the most accurate golfer’s in the world off the tee, so he can evade the hazards and work his way around the course efficiently.

Aaron Rai Top 20 Finish (5/2)

Previous success in majors has often led to strong performances at The Open. Aaron Rai, of course, won this year’s PGA Championship against the odds and placed 11th at the U.S. Open.

Checking the boxes for accuracy off the tee and a high level of approach play, the question with Rai is whether his putter gets hot. He missed cuts at the Scottish Open and Canadian Open because of poor putting – if he starts nailing his putts, he’s going to be in contention on Sunday.

Justin Thomas Top 20 Finish (5/2)

The Open hasn’t provided many happy memories for Justin Thomas since he tied for 11th in 2019. He’s not exactly been red-hot over the last few weeks, but there are promising signs with accurate driving in the last two events and some brilliant play around the greens.

The American had six straight top 20 finishes before placing 50th at the Scottish Open. He’s been there and done it on major weekends, so we wouldn’t be surprised if he made a bit of a run on Sunday.