Politics
Next General Election Odds: Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Now Clear Favourites After Local Elections
Reform UK’s strong showing in this week’s local elections has seen William Hill News make Nigel Farage’s party odds-on at 10/11 to win the most seats at the next UK General Election, with Labour easing to 5/2 and the Conservatives 6/1.
The fallout is also being felt in Labour leadership and succession betting. Angela Rayner is now 5/2 from 9/4 to take over from Keir Starmer, while Andy Burnham has shortened to 5/2 from 7/2.
There is a similar story in the next Prime Minister market; Rayner is 9/4 from 15/8 and Burnham is 9/4 from 11/4, leaving the pair joint-favourites as pressure builds on the current Labour leader.
Starmer’s exit-date betting now suggests the third quarter of this year is viewed as the likeliest window for a departure. The leading bookmaker go 5/4 for Starmer to leave between July and September 2026, with April to June priced at 4/1, October to December at 5/1 and 2027 or later at 9/4.
Most Seats At Next General Election Odds:
- Reform UK – 10/11
- Labour – 5/2
- Conservatives – 6/1
- Green Party – 7/1
- Restore – 10/1
- Bar – 33/1
Spokesperson for William Hill, Lee Phelps, said: “Reform UK’s performance in these local elections has pushed them into odds-on favouritism at 10/11 to win the most seats at the next General Election, and that tells you just how dramatically the political picture has shifted overnight.
“The pressure is now feeding straight into our Labour betting markets too – Angela Rayner and Andy Burnham are joint 5/2 favourites to be the next Prime Minister, they are also tied at 9/4 in the Next Labour Leader betting.
“Burnham is into 6/4 to return to Parliament in 2026, and our Starmer exit-date market now points most strongly to a departure between July and September at 5/4.”
*Odds subject to change – prices accurate at the time of writing*
