Chelsea can look in Toon
Newcastle v Chelsea - 28/11/2010- 13:30 Sky Sports 1
Chelsea are 4/6 with William Hill to win at Newcastle on Sunday and I cannot see any result other than an away victory. The stats for The Blues match against Birmingham City last week tell a frustrating story.
Chelsea had ten shots on target and fifteen shots off target against City's one shot on target and none off target. In one of the luckiest freak results of the season, City managed to hold off the champions.
Birmingham were spirited but Chelsea just did not take their chances. Chelsea remain top of the league on goal difference but it is more than likely that they will toppled by the Gunners or Man United by lunchtime on Sunday.
Chelsea had a much changed side in their midweek match in the Champions League and the punters that took the short price on Chelsea would have been sweating until the Blues scored the winner against Zilina as the game was played like an exhibition match.
Chelsea know their task on Sunday, the furore over the departure of Wilkins is behind them and they have their strongest squad in weeks. The players that had been carrying knocks or were ill are fit and Newcastle have defensive problems. They are still without Harper in goal and Krul is not the same quality as Birmingham's keeper Foster was last week.
Sol Campbell may be rusty as he is making his first league start for Newcastle and Steven Taylor is not match fit. Their usual defensive pairing of Coloccini and Williamson are serving bans. Chelsea are still without the influential playmaker Essien, their captain Terry and Lampard. They should have enough quality to win on Tyneside.
The home win is 4/1 and the draw is priced 11/4. Newcastle have lost their last six league home games against big four opposition and the Chelsea/Chelsea double result at 17/10 is a tempting price.
Newcastle were thrashed by Bolton 5-1 last week and they are a very Jekyll and Hyde side. They sit at a lofty tenth in the table but they are capable of capitulating during a game. With Chelsea desperate to score early and with both teams weak at the back, the over 2.5 goals at 10/11 looks the best bet.
Andy Carroll is in-form and capable of scoring anytime (7/4) and with the likes of Guthrie and Gutierrez in midfield, Newcastle can score on the break.
Newcastle at 11/5 to have the most corners offers some value, I think they will be chasing the draw early in the match and if Chelsea sit back after scoring a few goals in the first half, Newcastle should surge forward and rapidly increase their corner count. The Chelsea/Newcastle 14/1 corners double result market looks a good price for a small flutter.
Another interesting market is for the most booking points to be Chelsea at 11/10. If the match is not going their way, The Blues' players can be petulant and will find themselves getting booked. Newcastle have a poor disciplinary record of late and with Hughton stating in the press that they are not a dirty side, with the TV cameras on Tyneside, expect Newcastle to be on their best behaviour.