Tuesday's Spanish La Liga previews
Valladolid v Sevilla, 19:00-Sky Sports 2
New Valladolid coach Javier Clemente upset the form book and took a point from Tenerife at the weekend; a decent result when you consider that more accomplished teams have left the island with a hangover and zero points!
I doubt disciplinarian Clemente would let his players anywhere near a bar after the match, but they deserve a drink or two if they can beat Sevilla tonight.
A victory for Valladolid (16/5) is, however, the one outcome that I have not given any consideration to. Put simply, I can't see them scoring (only Sevilla to score is 2/1 in the teams to score market).
Given that Clemente is a good tactician with defensive tendencies, I can see them holding out for 45 minutes so draw/Sevilla (7/2) is worth consideration.
Sevilla (17/20) are slowly recovering their style of old, but came back from a goal down at Malaga through a goalkeeping error and a well timed set piece. The Rojiblancos showed great heart and determination, traits that have impressed manager Alvarez.
Speaking of set pieces, defender Draguitinovic (25/1 to score first, 8/1 anytime) is pretty good at them, and given that Valladolid are missing their goalkeeper Villar, could be a suitable long shot should anyone fancy such a bet.
Winger Navas is back, but needs time to recover his form. Fabiano (3/1 first scorer, 8/11 anytime) and Kanoute (9/2 to score first, 6/5 anytime) did not score in Malaga, but nonetheless are players that should be considered.
Like many of the games in midweek, this is a hard one to pick. A team fighting relegation against a team pushing for a Champions League slot. If Clemente plays half a team of centre backs as expected, the draw (5/2) could well prove to be a decent shout, as could under 2.5 goals (8/11)
In truth I cannot make my mind up on the 90 minute market, and would prefer to bet in-play. Consider it a cop out if you like, but picking something for the sake of it has given me around a 50/50 split when I assess recent picks that can be categorised in that manner.
I can, however, accept losing on small stakes goalscorer bets if there is good logic behind it. Based on what I have written above, I will have a little each way bet on Draguitinovic (25/1 to score first, 1/3 odds for e/w).
Getafe v Villarreal, 21:00-Sky Sports 2
In last weekend's previews, I said that Getafe looked to have given up after their home draw with Espanyol and that their game with Xerez would be a good indicator of whether or not that is the case.
Well, Getafe won 1-0 through a Rafa Lopez strike but allowed Xerez a lot of possession and dominance. It's fair to say that the Azulones did just enough to win a hard fought game.
Getafe (8/5) will be without key winger Pedro Leon tonight as he was sent off in the final minutes of the win at Xerez. Getafe have other players of good quality like Parejo, but Leon's absence is a massive blow to Madrid's second best side.
I expected Villarreal to comfortably beat Sporting at El Madrigal on Saturday evening, but they only managed a 1-0 win through a rare Diego Godin strike- The Yellow Submarines could and should have added more goals.
Goals, and lots of them, should be on the agenda tonight. The reverse fixture yielded five (3-2 win for Villarreal), with 3-3 the end result last season. Over 2.5 goals (10/11) therefore looks to be the best bet on paper.
In the Primera division standings, Villarreal are 7th with 46 points, while Getafe are 8th with 44 points. This is therefore a crucial tie for both teams if they are to realise their shared dreams of a Europa League spot next season.
Villarreal (8/5) are in slightly better form than Getafe, but have only won twice on the road this season. The subs won their last away game at Valladolid, but their hosts were pitiful. It's therefore very hard to judge how much Villarreal have improved on the road at this juncture.
Nilmar (5/1 to score first, 6/4 anytime) has not scored many recently but, given that I fancy a lot of goals tonight, is probably Villarreal's most likely scorer in this game.
I will shortly be taking a chance on over 2.5 goals and draw in the match x goals market (9/1). I will also consider the draw (12/5 pre-match) in-play, most likely if one team is leading with 15-20 minutes left.
As mentioned earlier, over 2.5 goals (10/11) appears to the best bet.
Both teams play attractive football so this should be an excellent game to watch. If you can't decide what to choose pre-match, don't forget that you can always bet In-Play with William Hill Online.