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Craig Porter 22nd Apr 2010 - 12:49

What are the chances? General Election betting odds

With the second leaders' debate just hours away it will be interesting to see if tonight's head-to-head-to-head showdown will have as much effect on the betting odds for the General Election as last week's.

Our graph plots the probabilty of each of the four possible outcomes of the election as a percentage according to the William Hill prices at the time.

We started off the month of April with the Conservative party leading the betting as the 8/11 favourites to win a majority. Labour were a 13/2 shot with the Liberal Democrats the big outsider, zero chance at 300/1.

This meant William Hill deemed the Tories to have around a 51% chance of winning the election at the time with the possibility of a Hung Parliament set at 37%. David Cameron's popularity grew and, as our price shortened to 4/7 the Conservatives were 56% likely to win the election, according to our odds.

Then Cleggmania swept the nation with the first Leaders' Debate on 14th April. We were forced by the amount of money being bet on Clegg the no-hoper to slash our odds to 20/1, equivalent to a 4% probability of winning (once you factor out our margin of course!).

As Clegg's popularity grew, so did the probability of their being a hung parliament which saw a swing in the favourtism in the betting for our General Election Result market.

With the final preparations being made in the Sky studios, David Cameron has snatched a bit of ground back and as we stand the odds are:

  • No overall majority: 8/13
  • Conservative majority: 6/4
  • Labour majority: 12/1
  • Liberal Democrat majority: 20/1


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