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Nic Ladds 31st Jul 2009 - 10:13

South Africa to leave All Blacks red faced

South Africa find themselves 1/2 favourites in the betting for their clash against 6/4 New Zealand and it would appear the Springboks have a fair bit going in their favour.

They won well against the All Blacks last week coming out 28-19 winners which would have been a lot more impressive were it not for a late comeback by the away side.

New Zealand look a team full of uncertainty and have only notched an unimpressive eight tries in five matches so far this year, three of which were against a tired Italy team.

Even the likes of Joe Rokocoko appear to be living on borrowed time with the media tearing into the All Blacks although some may be tempted by the 11/1 on offer about the winger to bounce back in style and score the first try.

Although New Zealand won against Australia in their first game showing they can grind out results when needed, they were outplayed for the first half and some of the second and should this happen against the Springboks they will not be so forgiving.

South Africa have had by far the best preparation for this facing up against the Lions and their huge pack and classy backs look a handful for any defence in the world which could have punters queuing up to take the 10/11 about the home side giving up five points on the handicap with New Zealand also 10/11 with a five point head start.

South African newspapers have been saying how criminally underused Bryan Habana is but the electric winger still managed to find a try more often than not and is 6/4 to do so at anytime or 9/1 to go over first.

The sensational Jaque Fourie could attract support at 12/1 to score first after grabbing one in the last game against New Zealand and although Morne Steyn comes in for Ruan Pienaar at fly half, many will not see this as a weakening as Pienaar did kick poorly last time and Steyn is an able deputy.

The All Blacks will be buoyed by the fact they do have a good record in Durban as they have won three of the last five matches here including a come from behind 26-21 win, but that was a very different All Blacks team then - a team that everyone feared and could do no wrong which is not how things are now.

We're confidently leaning towards a South African win here and the dozen winning margins market could be a good place to start for a bet with 1-12 point win available at 13/8 or a 13+ win 9/4.

If you're feeling more confident about placing the winning margins then 6-10 at 9/2 or 11-15 at 13/2 in South Africa's favour look about right.

New Zealand started very slowly against Australia and South Africa at odds of 8/13 in the race to ten points market looks a cracking bet.

For a bet on the away side, they did rally late against Australia and indeed last time against the Springboks so a wager on a battler like Ma'A Nonu or Mils Muliaina to score the last try at odds of 14/1 and 16/1 respectively could be the call.

There's no doubt this New Zealand side has talent but they look a dejected team uncertain of where they are heading at the moment. Public criticisms about the coach and team selections are not helping matters and the sky-high confidence of the South African's looks like it will overpower the uncertain flair of the All Blacks.

Recommendation:

South Africa to win race to ten points - 8/13

South Africa to win by 11-15 points - 13/2

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